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Chesham United v Chelmsford City

Chesham United

0–5Full time

Chelmsford City

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT · The Meadow

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Chesham United 0–5 Chelmsford City CHESHAM UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chesham United win~~38%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.592

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.643

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chesham United win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Chesham United v Chelmsford City
4′1′ and it is 0–1: J. Barham on the scoresheet for Chelmsford City. 0–1 · 17–20–63
4′⚽ GOAL · 1' Chesham United 0–1 Chelmsford City · J. Barham
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Chesham United win: 38% at kick-off, 17% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Chelmsford City win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Chesham United win 17%)
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Chesham United 0–2 Chelmsford City
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Chesham United 0–3 Chelmsford City
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Chesham United 0–4 Chelmsford City
26′21′ and it is 0–4: A. May on the scoresheet for Chelmsford City. 0–4 · 0–1–99
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Chesham United win: 38% at kick-off, 0% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Chesham United 0–5 Chelmsford City · A. May
39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Chesham United 0–5 Chelmsford City
46′SECOND HALF Chesham United 0–5 Chelmsford City
47′SECOND HALF Chesham United 0–5 Chelmsford City
79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Chelmsford City
79′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Chelmsford City
FTFULL TIME Chesham United 0–5 Chelmsford City
FTChesham United 0–5 Chelmsford City · Chesham United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chesham United win38%

Draw24%

Chelmsford City win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · The Meadow

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chesham united winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

38% The market40%

Us38%

~~Market~~40%

We make Chesham United a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chesham united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chesham United win	38%	40%	−2
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Chelmsford City win	38%	35%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%	−5
Both teams to score	58%	63%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−8
Chesham United or draw	62%	65%	−3
Chesham United clean sheet	24%	–	–
Chelmsford City clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 8.3 5.8 2.8 1 8.4 11.2 8.2 4.0 2 5.9 8.3 5.9 2.9 3 2.9 4.0 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chesham United down, Chelmsford City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chesham United at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chelmsford City away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Chesham United, 1.44 for Chelmsford City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–2 CHE · CHE 2–1 CHE · CHE 1–1 CHE · CHE 2–2 CHE

Form · last six in National League - South

CHESHAM UNITED

WDLLWL4–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 0–4

CHELMSFORD CITY

WDDDDD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4