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Braintree v Truro City

Braintree

1–2Full time

Truro City

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT · Rare Breed Meat Co. Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Braintree 1–2 Truro City TRURO CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Truro City win~~45%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.449

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.279

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Truro City win at 45%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Truro City 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
3′KICK-OFF Braintree v Truro City
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Braintree 1–0 Truro City
11′⚽ GOAL · 7' Braintree 1–0 Truro City · C. Senior
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Braintree 1–1 Truro City · C. Senior
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Braintree 1–1 Truro City
24′21′ and it is 1–1: M. Kinsey on the scoresheet for Truro City. 1–1 · 28–31–41
47′HALF-TIME Braintree 1–1 Truro City
47′SECOND HALF Braintree 1–1 Truro City
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Braintree 1–2 Truro City · M. Kinsey
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Braintree 1–2 Truro City
FTFULL TIME Braintree 1–2 Truro City
FTBraintree 1–2 Truro City · Truro City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Braintree win30%

Draw25%

Truro City win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Rare Breed Meat Co. Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · truro city winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market57%

Us45%

~~Market~~57%

We make Truro City a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · truro city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Braintree win	30%	20%	+10
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Truro City win	45%	57%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	51%	60%	−9
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	80%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Braintree or draw	55%	43%	+12
Braintree clean sheet	22%	–	–
Truro City clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.7 10.5 7.7 4.0 1 8.3 11.5 8.9 4.6 2 4.7 7.0 5.2 2.7 3 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Braintree down, Truro City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Braintree at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Truro City away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Braintree, 1.53 for Truro City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRU 1–2 BRA · BRA 3–2 TRU

Form · last six in National League - South

BRAINTREE

LWWLLL0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 3–4 · 1–3

TRURO CITY

LWDLWD0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4