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Billericay Town v Farnborough

Billericay Town

4–0Full time

Farnborough

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Billericay Town 4–0 Farnborough BILLERICAY TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Billericay Town win~~56%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.293

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.311

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Billericay Town win at 56%.
1′Billericay Town find the net on 5′. 0–0. 0–0 · 56–20–24
1′KICK-OFF Billericay Town v Farnborough
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Billericay Town 1–0 Farnborough
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Billericay Town 2–0 Farnborough
23′M. Bonne scores for Billericay Town on 18′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–2
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Billericay Town win: 56% at kick-off, 91% now
45′We published Billericay Town at 56%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
46′SECOND HALF Billericay Town 2–0 Farnborough
48′SECOND HALF Billericay Town 2–0 Farnborough
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Billericay Town 3–0 Farnborough · M. Bonne
89′⚽ GOAL · 90' Billericay Town 3–0 Farnborough
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Billericay Town 3–0 Farnborough · M. Bonne
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Billericay Town 4–0 Farnborough · M. Bonne
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Billericay Town 4–0 Farnborough
FTFULL TIME Billericay Town 4–0 Farnborough
FTBillericay Town 4–0 Farnborough · Billericay Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Billericay Town win56%

Draw20%

Farnborough win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · billericay town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

56% The market54%

Us56%

~~Market~~54%

We make Billericay Town a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · billericay town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Billericay Town win	56%	54%	+1
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Farnborough win	24%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	69%	65%	+4
Both teams to score	65%	64%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	86%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	48%	45%	+3
Billericay Town or draw	76%	77%	−2
Billericay Town clean sheet	26%	–	–
Farnborough clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.8 4.2 2.8 1 6.5 8.2 5.8 2.7 2 6.7 9.0 6.2 2.9 3 4.9 6.5 4.5 2.1 4 2.7 3.6 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Billericay Town down, Farnborough across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Billericay Town at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Farnborough away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Billericay Town, 1.39 for Farnborough. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League - South

BILLERICAY TOWN

LDWDWW0–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 3–0

FARNBOROUGH

DWLLLD1–1 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4