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AFC Totton v Walton & Hersham

AFC Totton

0–1Full time

Walton & Hersham

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT · The Snows Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

AFC Totton 0–1 Walton & Hersham AFC TOTTON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AFC Totton win~~48%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.771

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.898

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Totton win at 48%.
3′Little has changed for our model: AFC Totton 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
3′KICK-OFF AFC Totton v Walton & Hersham
45′SECOND HALF AFC Totton 0–0 Walton & Hersham
47′HALF-TIME AFC Totton 0–0 Walton & Hersham
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' AFC Totton win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' AFC Totton 0–1 Walton & Hersham
FTFULL TIME AFC Totton 0–1 Walton & Hersham
FTAFC Totton 0–1 Walton & Hersham · AFC Totton win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AFC Totton win48%

Draw22%

Walton & Hersham win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · The Snows Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc totton winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

48% The market52%

Us48%

~~Market~~52%

We make AFC Totton a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · afc totton win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Totton win	48%	52%	−5
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Walton & Hersham win	30%	24%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	44%	−6
AFC Totton or draw	70%	76%	−5
AFC Totton clean sheet	26%	–	–
Walton & Hersham clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.3 6.3 4.1 1 8.1 10.1 7.0 3.2 2 6.9 9.1 6.1 2.8 3 4.1 5.4 3.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Totton down, Walton & Hersham across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

AFC Totton at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Walton & Hersham away: 1.20 scored, 2.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for AFC Totton, 1.36 for Walton & Hersham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League - South

AFC TOTTON

LDWLLL0–4 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

WALTON & HERSHAM

LLLDDW1–4 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4