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Worksop Town v Morecambe

Worksop Town

2–1Full time

Morecambe

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT · Sandy Lane Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Worksop Town 2–1 Morecambe MORECAMBE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Morecambe win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.611

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.654

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Morecambe win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: Morecambe was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
2′KICK-OFF Worksop Town v Morecambe
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Worksop Town 1–0 Morecambe
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Worksop Town 2–0 Morecambe
25′23′ and it is 2–0: O. Greaves on the scoresheet for Worksop Town. 2–0 · 87–9–4
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Morecambe win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Worksop Town win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Morecambe win 4%)
46′We said Morecambe at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
46′SECOND HALF Worksop Town 2–0 Morecambe
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Worksop Town 2–1 Morecambe · O. Greaves
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Worksop Town 2–1 Morecambe
FTFULL TIME Worksop Town 2–1 Morecambe
FTWorksop Town 2–1 Morecambe · Morecambe win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Worksop Town win37%

Draw26%

Morecambe win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Sandy Lane Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · morecambe winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Morecambe a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · morecambe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Worksop Town win	37%	34%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Morecambe win	38%	39%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−5
Worksop Town or draw	62%	61%	+1
Worksop Town clean sheet	26%	–	–
Morecambe clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.0 9.3 6.3 2.9 1 9.1 12.0 8.1 3.7 2 6.0 8.0 5.4 2.5 3 2.7 3.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Worksop Town down, Morecambe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Worksop Town at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Morecambe away: 0.80 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Worksop Town, 1.36 for Morecambe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League - North

WORKSOP TOWN

LLWLWL1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–4

MORECAMBE

WWWLWD2–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6