Spennymoor Town v Chorley prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Spennymoor TownDrawChorley

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Chorley 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Chorley just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Spennymoor Town 38%, draw 24%, Chorley 38%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Spennymoor Town v ChorleyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Spennymoor Town win38%

Draw24%

Chorley win38%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spennymoor Town

Chorley

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - North

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Chorley	12	−1	17
24	Spennymoor Town	12	−14	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chorley winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Chorley a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spennymoor Town v Chorley~~1.47 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 17~~24 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spennymoor Town win	38%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Chorley win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Spennymoor Town or draw	62%	–	–
Spennymoor Town clean sheet	23%	–	–
Chorley clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 7.9 5.7 2.8 1 8.0 11.2 8.2 4.1 2 5.7 8.2 6.0 3.0 3 2.8 4.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spennymoor Town down, Chorley across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,825 National League - North matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spennymoor Town at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chorley away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Spennymoor Town, 1.47 for Chorley. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPE 1–0 CHO · CHO 0–0 SPE · CHO 4–0 SPE · SPE 1–2 CHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept

SPENNYMOOR TOWN

LLDDLL1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3

CHORLEY

LWLWWL0–4 · 5–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	12	+17	26
2	Oxford City	12	+14	24
3	Macclesfield	12	+7	24
4	South Shields	12	+3	23
5	King's Lynn Town	13	+6	21
6	Hednesford Town	13	+4	21
7	Chester	12	+3	20
8	Buxton	13	0	20
9	Bedford Town	12	0	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	−5	19
11	Morecambe	12	+6	17
12	Spalding United	12	+3	17
13	Chorley	12	−1	17
14	Worksop Town	13	−5	17
15	Marine	12	+1	16
16	Harborough Town	12	−1	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	+1	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	−1	15
19	Radcliffe	13	−5	15
20	Brackley Town	13	−9	15
21	AFC Telford United	13	−7	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	−7	11
23	Southport	13	−10	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	−14	7