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Model 1.2

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Southport v Radcliffe

Southport
0–2Full time
Radcliffe

National League - North · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Southport 0–2 Radcliffe SOUTHPORT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Southport win47%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.755
The market’s Brier score0.777

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Southport win at 47%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Southport v Radcliffe
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Southport 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–30
  4. 8′Little has changed for our model: Southport 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
  5. 36′We said Southport at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–24–60
  6. 36′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 16–24–60
  7. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Southport 0–1 Radcliffe
  8. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Southport win: 47% at kick-off, 16% now
  9. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Radcliffe win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Southport win 16%)
  10. 37′A goal for Radcliffe on 37′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–24–60
  11. 42′We said Southport at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Southport 0–1 Radcliffe
  13. 47′HALF-TIME Southport 0–1 Radcliffe
  14. 57′We said Southport at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  15. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Southport win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  16. 71′We said Southport at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
  17. 72′Radcliffe score on 72′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
  18. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Southport 0–2 Radcliffe
  19. 94′0–2 at the end. Our 47% on Southport misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  20. FTFULL TIME Southport 0–2 Radcliffe
  21. FTSouthport 0–2 Radcliffe · Southport win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Southport are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Southport 47%, draw 23%, Radcliffe 30%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Southport v RadcliffeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Southport win47%
Draw23%
Radcliffe win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Southport

Radcliffe

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
20Southport11−89
21Radcliffe11−89

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · southport winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market46%
Us47%
Market46%

We make Southport a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Southport v Radcliffe1.76 – 1.38
Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 AugW1 D1 L4 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 9 v 920 v 21
The market · Southport win46% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Southport win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Southport win47%46%+1
Draw23%25%−2
Radcliffe win30%29%+1
Over 2.5 goals60%61%−1
Both teams to score61%62%−1
Over 1.5 goals81%81%0
Over 3.5 goals38%42%−4
Southport or draw70%71%−1
Southport clean sheet26%––
Radcliffe clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%
0123450 4.4 6.2 4.2 1 7.9 10.3 7.1 3.3 2 6.7 9.0 6.1 2.8 3 4.0 5.3 3.6 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Southport down, Radcliffe across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored5 of 6
Last meetingsRAD 1–2 SOU · SOU 2–0 RAD · SOU 3–2 RAD · RAD 1–1 SOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug

SOUTHPORT

LLWLDL0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

RADCLIFFE

LLWLLW0–1 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 4–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Macclesfield11+824
2Hereford11+1623
3Oxford City11+1423
4Chester11+520
5South Shields11+120
6King's Lynn Town11+619
7Hebburn Town11−318
8Spalding United11+517
9Chorley11017
10Buxton11−116
11Bedford Town11−116
12Hednesford Town11+115
13Marine11+115
14Harborough Town11−115
15Worksop Town11−515
16Brackley Town11−715
17Morecambe11+414
18Merthyr Town11+114
19Scarborough Athletic11012
20Southport11−89
21Radcliffe11−89
22AFC Telford United11−89
23Darlington 188311−98
24Spennymoor Town11−117

The competition's standings before kick-off.