Southport v AFC Telford United prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SouthportDrawAFC Telford United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · AFC Telford United 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AFC Telford United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Southport 37%, draw 25%, AFC Telford United 38%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Southport v AFC Telford UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Southport win37%

Draw25%

AFC Telford United win38%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Southport

AFC Telford United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - North

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
21	AFC Telford United	13	−7	13
23	Southport	13	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc telford united winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make AFC Telford United a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Southport v AFC Telford United~~1.38 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~23 v 21

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Southport win	37%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
AFC Telford United win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Southport or draw	62%	–	–
Southport clean sheet	25%	–	–
AFC Telford United clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.2 8.8 6.1 2.9 1 8.5 11.6 8.3 4.0 2 5.8 8.0 5.7 2.7 3 2.7 3.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Southport down, AFC Telford United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,825 National League - North matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Southport at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Telford United away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Southport, 1.42 for AFC Telford United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SOU 2–0 AFC · AFC 2–2 SOU · AFC 1–1 SOU · SOU 0–0 AFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 8 Sept

SOUTHPORT

WLDLLD2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

AFC TELFORD UNITED

WDLLWD1–0 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	12	+17	26
2	Oxford City	12	+14	24
3	Macclesfield	12	+7	24
4	South Shields	12	+3	23
5	King's Lynn Town	13	+6	21
6	Hednesford Town	13	+4	21
7	Chester	12	+3	20
8	Buxton	13	0	20
9	Bedford Town	12	0	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	−5	19
11	Morecambe	12	+6	17
12	Spalding United	12	+3	17
13	Chorley	12	−1	17
14	Worksop Town	13	−5	17
15	Marine	12	+1	16
16	Harborough Town	12	−1	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	+1	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	−1	15
19	Radcliffe	13	−5	15
20	Brackley Town	13	−9	15
21	AFC Telford United	13	−7	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	−7	11
23	Southport	13	−10	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	−14	7