South Shields v Chester

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said South Shields win at 48%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: South Shields was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
3. 1′KICK-OFF South Shields v Chester
4. 21′We said South Shields at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–25–56
5. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' South Shields 0–1 Chester
6. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' South Shields win: 48% at kick-off, 20% now
7. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Chester win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was South Shields win 45%)
8. 22′A goal for Chester on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–25–56
9. 23′We said South Shields at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
10. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' South Shields win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
11. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' South Shields 1–1 Chester
12. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' South Shields win: 48% at kick-off, 43% now
13. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' South Shields win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Chester win 57%)
14. 29′South Shields score on 28′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 43–32–26
15. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' South Shields win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
16. 45′SECOND HALF South Shields 1–1 Chester
17. 46′HALF-TIME South Shields 1–1 Chester
18. 49′We said South Shields at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–41–23
19. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was South Shields win 38%)
20. 53′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 35–43–22
21. 54′We said South Shields at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–22
22. 62′We published South Shields at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–3
23. 62′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 80–16–3
24. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' South Shields 2–1 Chester
25. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' South Shields win: 48% at kick-off, 80% now
26. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' South Shields win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 50%)
27. 63′South Shields find the net on 63′. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
28. 72′We published South Shields at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
29. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' South Shields win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
30. 80′We published South Shields at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
31. 83′We published South Shields at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
32. 83′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
33. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' South Shields 3–1 Chester
34. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' South Shields win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
35. 85′A goal for South Shields on 84′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
36. 95′Full time, 3–1. We called South Shields at 48% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
37. FTFULL TIME South Shields 3–1 Chester
38. FTSouth Shields 3–1 Chester · South Shields win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.