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Model 1.2

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Scarborough Athletic v Bedford Town

Scarborough Athletic
1–2Full time
Bedford Town

National League - North · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Scarborough Athletic 1–2 Bedford Town SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Scarborough Athletic win50%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.853
The market’s Brier score0.925

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Scarborough Athletic win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Scarborough Athletic 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Scarborough Athletic v Bedford Town
  4. 13′We said Scarborough Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–24–53
  5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Scarborough Athletic 0–1 Bedford Town
  6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Scarborough Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, 23% now
  7. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Bedford Town win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Scarborough Athletic win 47%)
  8. 15′Bedford Town find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–25–53
  9. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Scarborough Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  10. 25′We said Scarborough Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–55
  11. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Scarborough Athletic 1–1 Bedford Town
  12. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Scarborough Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, 44% now
  13. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Scarborough Athletic win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Bedford Town win 56%)
  14. 29′A goal for Scarborough Athletic on 28′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 44–32–25
  15. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Scarborough Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Scarborough Athletic 1–1 Bedford Town
  17. 46′We said Scarborough Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–39–23
  18. 48′HALF-TIME Scarborough Athletic 1–1 Bedford Town
  19. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Scarborough Athletic win 39%)
  20. 54′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 35–44–21
  21. 55′We said Scarborough Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–45–21
  22. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Scarborough Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  23. 64′We said Scarborough Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
  24. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Scarborough Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  25. 79′We said Scarborough Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  26. 79′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  27. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Scarborough Athletic 1–2 Bedford Town
  28. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Scarborough Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, 2% now
  29. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Bedford Town win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 74%)
  30. 80′Bedford Town score on 80′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–13–85
  31. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Scarborough Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
  32. 95′1–2 at the end. Our 50% on Scarborough Athletic misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  33. FTFULL TIME Scarborough Athletic 1–2 Bedford Town
  34. FTScarborough Athletic 1–2 Bedford Town · Scarborough Athletic win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Scarborough Athletic are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Scarborough Athletic 50%, draw 24%, Bedford Town 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Scarborough Athletic v Bedford TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Scarborough Athletic win50%
Draw24%
Bedford Town win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Scarborough Athletic

Bedford Town

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - North

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
12Bedford Town11−116
14Scarborough Athletic12+215

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · scarborough athletic winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
50% The market52%
Us50%
Market52%

We make Scarborough Athletic a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Scarborough Athletic v Bedford Town1.62 – 1.09
Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 AugW1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 15 v 1614 v 12
The market · Scarborough Athletic win52% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Scarborough Athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Scarborough Athletic win50%52%−2
Draw24%25%−1
Bedford Town win26%23%+3
Over 2.5 goals51%56%−5
Both teams to score52%57%−5
Over 1.5 goals75%78%−3
Over 3.5 goals29%35%−6
Scarborough Athletic or draw74%77%−3
Scarborough Athletic clean sheet34%––
Bedford Town clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 6.8 7.5 4.0 1 11.0 11.5 6.3 2.3 2 8.7 9.3 5.0 3 4.7 5.0 2.7 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Scarborough Athletic down, Bedford Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsBED 1–1 SCA · SCA 2–2 BED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug

SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC

LDDDLW0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–0

BEDFORD TOWN

WWWLDL1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Macclesfield11+824
2Hereford11+1623
3Oxford City11+1423
4King's Lynn Town12+620
5Chester11+520
6South Shields11+120
7Hednesford Town12+218
8Hebburn Town12−518
9Spalding United11+517
10Chorley11017
11Buxton12−117
12Bedford Town11−116
13Worksop Town12−516
14Scarborough Athletic12+215
15Merthyr Town12+115
16Marine11+115
17Harborough Town11−115
18Brackley Town12−815
19Morecambe11+414
20Radcliffe12−612
21AFC Telford United12−712
22Southport12−109
23Darlington 188312−108
24Spennymoor Town11−117

The competition's standings before kick-off.