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Radcliffe v Scarborough Athletic

Radcliffe

4–1Full time

Scarborough Athletic

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Radcliffe 4–1 Scarborough Athletic SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Scarborough Athletic win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.698

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.715

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Scarborough Athletic win at 43%.
2′KICK-OFF Radcliffe v Scarborough Athletic
10′Little has changed for our model: Scarborough Athletic 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 32–27–42
24′⚽ GOAL · 21' Radcliffe 1–0 Scarborough Athletic
30′Radcliffe ahead on 24′ through T. James. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–23–15
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Scarborough Athletic win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Radcliffe win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Scarborough Athletic win 15%)
45′SECOND HALF Radcliffe 1–0 Scarborough Athletic
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Radcliffe 2–0 Scarborough Athletic · T. James
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Radcliffe 2–0 Scarborough Athletic
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Radcliffe 3–0 Scarborough Athletic · T. James
75′⚽ GOAL · 76' Radcliffe 3–0 Scarborough Athletic
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Radcliffe 3–1 Scarborough Athletic · C. Raglan
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Radcliffe 3–1 Scarborough Athletic
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Radcliffe 4–1 Scarborough Athletic · C. Raglan
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Radcliffe 4–1 Scarborough Athletic
FTFULL TIME Radcliffe 4–1 Scarborough Athletic
FTRadcliffe 4–1 Scarborough Athletic · Scarborough Athletic win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Radcliffe win33%

Draw25%

Scarborough Athletic win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · scarborough athletic winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Scarborough Athletic a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · scarborough athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Radcliffe win	33%	32%	+1
Draw	25%	26%	−2
Scarborough Athletic win	43%	42%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	36%	−3
Radcliffe or draw	57%	58%	−1
Radcliffe clean sheet	22%	–	–
Scarborough Athletic clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.9 9.0 6.8 3.6 1 7.7 11.4 8.8 4.5 2 5.0 7.5 5.7 3.0 3 2.2 3.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Radcliffe down, Scarborough Athletic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Radcliffe at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Scarborough Athletic away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Radcliffe, 1.55 for Scarborough Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RAD 1–4 SCA · SCA 0–3 RAD · SCA 2–0 RAD · RAD 3–3 SCA

Form · last six in National League - North

RADCLIFFE

LLLWLL0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 1–4

SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC

WLLDDD5–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6