Oxford City v Merthyr Town prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Oxford CityDrawMerthyr Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Oxford City 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oxford City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oxford City 47%, draw 23%, Merthyr Town 30%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Oxford City v Merthyr TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Oxford City win47%

Draw23%

Merthyr Town win30%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundNational League North · matchday 14

VenueRAW Charging Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oxford City

Merthyr Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - North

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
15	Merthyr Town	12	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oxford city winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Oxford City a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oxford City v Merthyr Town~~1.79 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 15~~3 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oxford City win	47%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Merthyr Town win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Oxford City or draw	70%	–	–
Oxford City clean sheet	26%	–	–
Merthyr Town clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.3 6.0 4.1 1 7.8 10.2 7.0 3.2 2 6.8 9.1 6.2 2.9 3 4.1 5.4 3.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oxford City down, Merthyr Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,813 National League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oxford City at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Merthyr Town away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Oxford City, 1.37 for Merthyr Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MER 1–1 OXF · OXF 1–3 MER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept

OXFORD CITY

WLWDWD4–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1

MERTHYR TOWN

WDLDDL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Macclesfield	11	+8	24
2	Hereford	11	+16	23
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
4	King's Lynn Town	12	+6	20
5	Chester	11	+5	20
6	South Shields	11	+1	20
7	Hednesford Town	12	+2	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	−5	18
9	Spalding United	11	+5	17
10	Chorley	11	0	17
11	Buxton	12	−1	17
12	Bedford Town	11	−1	16
13	Worksop Town	12	−5	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	+2	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	+1	15
16	Marine	11	+1	15
17	Harborough Town	11	−1	15
18	Brackley Town	12	−8	15
19	Morecambe	11	+4	14
20	Radcliffe	12	−6	12
21	AFC Telford United	12	−7	12
22	Southport	12	−10	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	−10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7