Merthyr Town v Morecambe

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Merthyr Town win at 45%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Merthyr Town was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
3. 1′KICK-OFF Merthyr Town v Morecambe
4. 37′We said Merthyr Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–24–61
5. 37′Morecambe score on 37′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–61
6. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Merthyr Town 0–1 Morecambe
7. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Merthyr Town win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
8. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Morecambe win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Merthyr Town win 39%)
9. 38′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 15–24–61
10. 39′We said Merthyr Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
11. 45′HALF-TIME Merthyr Town 0–1 Morecambe
12. 45′SECOND HALF Merthyr Town 0–1 Morecambe
13. 55′We said Merthyr Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
14. 58′A goal for Merthyr Town on 58′. 0–1 · 8–23–68
15. 58′We said Merthyr Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–44–24
16. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Merthyr Town 1–1 Morecambe
17. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Merthyr Town win: 45% at kick-off, 32% now
18. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Morecambe win 68%)
19. 62′We said Merthyr Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
20. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Merthyr Town win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
21. 70′We said Merthyr Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
22. 73′A goal for Morecambe on 73′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–19–78
23. 73′We said Merthyr Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–19–78
24. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Merthyr Town 1–2 Morecambe
25. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Merthyr Town win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
26. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Morecambe win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 61%)
27. 90′Morecambe score on 90′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
28. 90′Full time, 1–3. We called Merthyr Town at 45% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–3 · 0–0–100
29. 94′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
30. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Merthyr Town 1–3 Morecambe
31. FTFULL TIME Merthyr Town 1–3 Morecambe
32. FTMerthyr Town 1–3 Morecambe · Merthyr Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.