Home › Football › National League - North › Merthyr Town v King's Lynn Town

Merthyr Town v King's Lynn Town

Merthyr Town

1–1Full time

King's Lynn Town

National League - North · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Merthyr Town 1–1 King's Lynn Town MERTHYR TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Merthyr Town win~~47%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.903

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Merthyr Town win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Merthyr Town 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–23–30
1′KICK-OFF Merthyr Town v King's Lynn Town
6′Little has changed for our model: Merthyr Town 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
29′Merthyr Town find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Merthyr Town 1–0 King's Lynn Town
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Merthyr Town win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
30′We said Merthyr Town at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
45′HALF-TIME Merthyr Town 1–0 King's Lynn Town
46′SECOND HALF Merthyr Town 1–0 King's Lynn Town
50′We said Merthyr Town at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Merthyr Town win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
66′We said Merthyr Town at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
69′PENALTY MISSED · 69' King's Lynn Town
70′A goal for King's Lynn Town on 70′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–56–19
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Merthyr Town 1–1 King's Lynn Town
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Merthyr Town win: 47% at kick-off, 25% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Merthyr Town win 25%)
71′We said Merthyr Town at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Merthyr Town win: 47% at kick-off, 24% now
77′We said Merthyr Town at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Merthyr Town win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
81′We said Merthyr Town at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
85′We said Merthyr Town at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Merthyr Town win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
FTFULL TIME Merthyr Town 1–1 King's Lynn Town
FTMerthyr Town 1–1 King's Lynn Town · Merthyr Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Merthyr Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Merthyr Town 47%, draw 23%, King's Lynn Town 30%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Merthyr Town v King's Lynn TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Merthyr Town win47%

Draw23%

King's Lynn Town win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Merthyr Town

King's Lynn Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	King's Lynn Town	11	+6	19
18	Merthyr Town	11	+1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · merthyr town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market39%

Us47%

~~Market~~39%

We make Merthyr Town a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Merthyr Town v King's Lynn Town~~1.75 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 19~~18 v 6

~~The market · Merthyr Town win~~39% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Merthyr Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Merthyr Town win	47%	39%	+8
Draw	23%	27%	−4
King's Lynn Town win	30%	34%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	57%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	78%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	36%	+1
Merthyr Town or draw	70%	66%	+4
Merthyr Town clean sheet	26%	–	–
King's Lynn Town clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.6 6.3 4.2 1 8.1 10.4 7.0 3.2 2 6.9 9.1 6.1 2.8 3 4.0 5.3 3.5 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Merthyr Town down, King's Lynn Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,807 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Merthyr Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). King's Lynn Town away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Merthyr Town, 1.35 for King's Lynn Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MER 1–0 KIN · KIN 4–0 MER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug

MERTHYR TOWN

LWWDLD1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

KING'S LYNN TOWN

WWLWWW3–1 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Macclesfield	11	+8	24
2	Hereford	11	+16	23
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
4	Chester	11	+5	20
5	South Shields	11	+1	20
6	King's Lynn Town	11	+6	19
7	Hebburn Town	11	−3	18
8	Spalding United	11	+5	17
9	Chorley	11	0	17
10	Buxton	11	−1	16
11	Bedford Town	11	−1	16
12	Hednesford Town	11	+1	15
13	Marine	11	+1	15
14	Harborough Town	11	−1	15
15	Worksop Town	11	−5	15
16	Brackley Town	11	−7	15
17	Morecambe	11	+4	14
18	Merthyr Town	11	+1	14
19	Scarborough Athletic	11	0	12
20	Southport	11	−8	9
21	Radcliffe	11	−8	9
22	AFC Telford United	11	−8	9
23	Darlington 1883	11	−9	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7