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Marine v Spalding United

Marine

1–0Full time

Spalding United

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT · Rossett Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Marine 1–0 Spalding United MARINE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marine win~~37%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.609

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.575

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marine win at 37%.
3′KICK-OFF Marine v Spalding United
11′Much as we predicted: Marine was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–30–35
45′SECOND HALF Marine 0–0 Spalding United
46′HALF-TIME Marine 0–0 Spalding United
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Marine 1–0 Spalding United
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Marine 1–0 Spalding United
FTFULL TIME Marine 1–0 Spalding United
FTMarine 1–0 Spalding United · Marine win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Marine win37%

Draw27%

Spalding United win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Rossett Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marine winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

37% The market38%

Us37%

~~Market~~38%

We make Marine a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · marine win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marine win	37%	38%	−2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Spalding United win	36%	35%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	49%	57%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	32%	−8
Marine or draw	64%	65%	−1
Marine clean sheet	30%	–	–
Spalding United clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.9 10.7 6.5 2.7 1 10.7 12.7 7.7 3.2 2 6.5 7.7 4.7 3 2.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marine down, Spalding United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Marine at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Spalding United away: 1.40 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Marine, 1.22 for Spalding United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League - North

MARINE

WLLLWW2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

SPALDING UNITED

WDWWWL3–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6