Marine v Oxford City

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Marine win at 37%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Marine 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–37
3. 1′KICK-OFF Marine v Oxford City
4. 37′A goal for Oxford City on 37′. 0–0 · 32–36–32
5. 37′We said Marine at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–22–68
6. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Marine 0–1 Oxford City
7. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Marine win: 37% at kick-off, 10% now
8. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Oxford City win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Marine win 33%)
9. 38′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–68
10. 40′We said Marine at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
11. 45′E. Brown scores for Oxford City on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–70
12. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Marine 1–1 Oxford City
13. 45′HALF-TIME Marine 1–1 Oxford City
14. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Marine win: 37% at kick-off, 30% now
15. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Oxford City win 71%)
16. 45′SECOND HALF Marine 1–1 Oxford City
17. 47′Marine find the net on 45′. 0–1 · 8–22–71
18. 54′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Marine
19. 55′Marine are down to ten from 55′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 27–47–27
20. 59′We said Marine at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–50–25
21. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 55' I. Abankwah · Marine
22. 61′We said Marine at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
23. 70′We said Marine at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–61–19
24. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Marine win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
25. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Marine win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
26. 90′We said Marine at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
27. FTFULL TIME Marine 1–1 Oxford City
28. FTMarine 1–1 Oxford City · Marine win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.