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Macclesfield v South Shields

Macclesfield

4–3Full time

South Shields

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Macclesfield 4–3 South Shields MACCLESFIELD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Macclesfield win~~40%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.540

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Macclesfield win at 40%.
2′KICK-OFF Macclesfield v South Shields
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Macclesfield 0–1 South Shields
9′9′ and it is 0–1: South Shields have scored. 0–1 · 18–21–61
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Macclesfield 0–1 South Shields · P. Blackett
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Macclesfield win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' South Shields win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Macclesfield win 18%)
12′⚽ GOAL · 9' Macclesfield 0–2 South Shields
29′Macclesfield find the net on 27′. 1–2. 1–2 · 14–22–63
29′⚽ GOAL · 27' Macclesfield 1–2 South Shields
42′⚽ GOAL · 39' Macclesfield 1–3 South Shields
45′⚽ GOAL · 42' Macclesfield 2–3 South Shields
46′SECOND HALF Macclesfield 2–3 South Shields
47′HALF-TIME Macclesfield 2–3 South Shields
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Macclesfield 3–3 South Shields
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Macclesfield 4–3 South Shields · J. Ustabasi
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Macclesfield 4–3 South Shields
FTFULL TIME Macclesfield 4–3 South Shields
FTMacclesfield 4–3 South Shields · Macclesfield win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Macclesfield win40%

Draw24%

South Shields win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · macclesfield winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market46%

Us40%

~~Market~~46%

We make Macclesfield a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · macclesfield win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Macclesfield win	40%	46%	−5
Draw	24%	25%	0
South Shields win	35%	30%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	63%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	40%	−6
Macclesfield or draw	65%	70%	−6
Macclesfield clean sheet	25%	–	–
South Shields clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.5 7.6 5.3 2.5 1 8.2 11.2 7.9 3.7 2 6.2 8.5 6.0 2.8 3 3.2 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Macclesfield down, South Shields across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Macclesfield at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). South Shields away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Macclesfield, 1.41 for South Shields. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SOU 4–1 MAC · MAC 1–0 SOU

Form · last six in National League - North

MACCLESFIELD

WWLDDW2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

SOUTH SHIELDS

DWWLWL1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–6 · 4–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6