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Model 1.2

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Macclesfield v Hereford

Macclesfield
1–2Full time
Hereford

National League - North · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Macclesfield 1–2 Hereford MACCLESFIELD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Macclesfield win48%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.798
The market’s Brier score0.918

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Macclesfield win at 48%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Macclesfield was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Macclesfield v Hereford
  4. 14′🟥 RED CARD · 14' Macclesfield
  5. 15′A red card for Macclesfield on 15′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 23–23–54
  6. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Macclesfield 0–1 Hereford
  7. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Macclesfield win: 48% at kick-off, 23% now
  8. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Hereford win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Macclesfield win 46%)
  9. 16′We said Macclesfield at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–23–54
  10. 16′Hereford find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–23–54
  11. 27′We said Macclesfield at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 18–24–57
  13. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Macclesfield win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  14. 43′We said Macclesfield at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  15. 47′HALF-TIME Macclesfield 0–1 Hereford
  16. 49′SECOND HALF Macclesfield 0–1 Hereford
  17. 55′We said Macclesfield at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–42–23
  18. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Macclesfield 1–1 Hereford
  19. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Macclesfield win: 48% at kick-off, 35% now
  20. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Hereford win 65%)
  21. 56′We said Macclesfield at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
  22. 56′A goal for Macclesfield on 56′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–43–23
  23. 62′We said Macclesfield at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–23–69
  24. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Macclesfield 1–2 Hereford
  25. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Macclesfield win: 48% at kick-off, 7% now
  26. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Hereford win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 47%)
  27. 63′Hereford score on 63′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–23–70
  28. 65′🟥 RED CARD · 65' Macclesfield
  29. 71′We said Macclesfield at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  30. 95′Full time, 1–2. We called Macclesfield at 48% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  31. FTFULL TIME Macclesfield 1–2 Hereford
  32. FTMacclesfield 1–2 Hereford · Macclesfield win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Macclesfield are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Macclesfield 48%, draw 23%, Hereford 28%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Macclesfield v HerefordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Macclesfield win48%
Draw23%
Hereford win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Macclesfield

Hereford

4Days since last match14

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Macclesfield11+824
2Hereford11+1623

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · macclesfield winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
48% The market52%
Us48%
Market52%

We make Macclesfield a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Macclesfield v Hereford1.73 – 1.27
Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 AugW3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 24 v 231 v 2
The market · Macclesfield win52% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Macclesfield win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Macclesfield win48%52%−4
Draw23%24%−1
Hereford win28%23%+5
Over 2.5 goals57%59%−2
Both teams to score58%59%−1
Over 1.5 goals80%80%0
Over 3.5 goals35%38%−3
Macclesfield or draw72%77%−5
Macclesfield clean sheet28%––
Hereford clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 5.1 6.5 4.1 1 8.8 10.7 6.8 2.9 2 7.4 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.3 5.4 3.4 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Macclesfield down, Hereford across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsHER 0–2 MAC · MAC 3–1 HER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug

MACCLESFIELD

WLDDWW3–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–3

HEREFORD

WWWWDL1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Macclesfield11+824
2Hereford11+1623
3Oxford City11+1423
4King's Lynn Town12+620
5Chester11+520
6South Shields11+120
7Hednesford Town12+218
8Hebburn Town12−518
9Spalding United11+517
10Chorley11017
11Buxton12−117
12Bedford Town11−116
13Worksop Town12−516
14Scarborough Athletic12+215
15Merthyr Town12+115
16Marine11+115
17Harborough Town11−115
18Brackley Town12−815
19Morecambe11+414
20Radcliffe12−612
21AFC Telford United12−712
22Southport12−109
23Darlington 188312−108
24Spennymoor Town11−117

The competition's standings before kick-off.