King's Lynn Town v Southport prediction · National League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

King's Lynn Town 0–0 Southport KING'S LYNN TOWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said King's Lynn Town win~~53%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.905

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.935

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said King's Lynn Town win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: King's Lynn Town 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–23
1′KICK-OFF King's Lynn Town v Southport
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' King's Lynn Town win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
43′We said King's Lynn Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–38–21
45′HALF-TIME King's Lynn Town 0–0 Southport
46′SECOND HALF King's Lynn Town 0–0 Southport
48′We said King's Lynn Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–20
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was King's Lynn Town win 40%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–45–19
58′We said King's Lynn Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' King's Lynn Town win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
66′We said King's Lynn Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
72′We said King's Lynn Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' King's Lynn Town win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
77′We said King's Lynn Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–11
81′We said King's Lynn Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' King's Lynn Town win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
85′We said King's Lynn Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
91′We said King's Lynn Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' King's Lynn Town win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME King's Lynn Town 0–0 Southport
FTKing's Lynn Town 0–0 Southport · King's Lynn Town win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

King's Lynn Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: King's Lynn Town 53%, draw 24%, Southport 23%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on King's Lynn Town v SouthportBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

King's Lynn Town win53%

Draw24%

Southport win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

King's Lynn Town

Southport

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - North

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	King's Lynn Town	12	+6	20
22	Southport	12	−10	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · king's lynn town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

53% The market56%

Us53%

~~Market~~56%

We make King's Lynn Town a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · King's Lynn Town v Southport~~1.65 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 20 v 9~~4 v 22

~~The market · King's Lynn Town win~~56% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · King's Lynn Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
King's Lynn Town win	53%	56%	−3
Draw	24%	24%	0
Southport win	23%	21%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	57%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	37%	−9
King's Lynn Town or draw	77%	79%	−2
King's Lynn Town clean sheet	37%	–	–
Southport clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 7.2 7.3 3.6 1 11.8 11.4 5.7 2 9.5 9.3 4.7 3 5.3 5.2 2.6 4 2.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+King's Lynn Town down, Southport across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,813 National League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

King's Lynn Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Southport away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for King's Lynn Town, 1.00 for Southport. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KIN 2–0 SOU · SOU 0–0 KIN · SOU 0–2 KIN · KIN 1–0 SOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept

KING'S LYNN TOWN

WLWWWD2–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

SOUTHPORT

LWLDLL0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Macclesfield	11	+8	24
2	Hereford	11	+16	23
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
4	King's Lynn Town	12	+6	20
5	Chester	11	+5	20
6	South Shields	11	+1	20
7	Hednesford Town	12	+2	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	−5	18
9	Spalding United	11	+5	17
10	Chorley	11	0	17
11	Buxton	12	−1	17
12	Bedford Town	11	−1	16
13	Worksop Town	12	−5	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	+2	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	+1	15
16	Marine	11	+1	15
17	Harborough Town	11	−1	15
18	Brackley Town	12	−8	15
19	Morecambe	11	+4	14
20	Radcliffe	12	−6	12
21	AFC Telford United	12	−7	12
22	Southport	12	−10	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	−10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7