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King's Lynn Town v Buxton

King's Lynn Town

1–0Full time

Buxton

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

King's Lynn Town 1–0 Buxton KING'S LYNN TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said King's Lynn Town win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.679

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said King's Lynn Town win at 38%.
4′KICK-OFF King's Lynn Town v Buxton
7′Much as we predicted: King's Lynn Town was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–37
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' King's Lynn Town 1–0 Buxton
45′HALF-TIME King's Lynn Town 1–0 Buxton
47′SECOND HALF King's Lynn Town 1–0 Buxton
FTFULL TIME King's Lynn Town 1–0 Buxton
FTKing's Lynn Town 1–0 Buxton · King's Lynn Town win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

King's Lynn Town win38%

Draw24%

Buxton win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · king's lynn town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make King's Lynn Town a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · king's lynn town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
King's Lynn Town win	38%	33%	+5
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Buxton win	37%	41%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−3
King's Lynn Town or draw	63%	59%	+4
King's Lynn Town clean sheet	24%	–	–
Buxton clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 7.8 5.6 2.8 1 7.9 11.2 8.1 4.0 2 5.8 8.2 6.0 3.0 3 2.9 4.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+King's Lynn Town down, Buxton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

King's Lynn Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Buxton away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for King's Lynn Town, 1.47 for Buxton. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BUX 1–2 KIN · KIN 3–2 BUX · BUX 0–1 KIN · KIN 2–0 BUX

Form · last six in National League - North

KING'S LYNN TOWN

LWWLWW2–4 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 5–0

BUXTON

WWLWWL3–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6