Hereford v King's Lynn Town prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HerefordDrawKing's Lynn Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Hereford 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hereford are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hereford 47%, draw 25%, King's Lynn Town 28%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Hereford v King's Lynn TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Hereford win47%

Draw25%

King's Lynn Town win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 15

VenueEdgar Street

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hereford

King's Lynn Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - North

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hereford winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Hereford a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hereford v King's Lynn Town~~1.53 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 21~~1 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hereford win	47%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
King's Lynn Town win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Hereford or draw	72%	–	–
Hereford clean sheet	33%	–	–
King's Lynn Town clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.3 8.1 4.5 1 11.1 11.8 6.6 2.5 2 8.3 9.0 5.0 3 4.3 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hereford down, King's Lynn Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,825 National League - North matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hereford at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). King's Lynn Town away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Hereford, 1.11 for King's Lynn Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KIN 0–0 HER · HER 0–2 KIN · KIN 0–2 HER · HER 0–0 KIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept

HEREFORD

WWWDLW2–1 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

KING'S LYNN TOWN

LWWWDD2–3 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	12	+17	26
2	Oxford City	12	+14	24
3	Macclesfield	12	+7	24
4	South Shields	12	+3	23
5	King's Lynn Town	13	+6	21
6	Hednesford Town	13	+4	21
7	Chester	12	+3	20
8	Buxton	13	0	20
9	Bedford Town	12	0	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	−5	19
11	Morecambe	12	+6	17
12	Spalding United	12	+3	17
13	Chorley	12	−1	17
14	Worksop Town	13	−5	17
15	Marine	12	+1	16
16	Harborough Town	12	−1	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	+1	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	−1	15
19	Radcliffe	13	−5	15
20	Brackley Town	13	−9	15
21	AFC Telford United	13	−7	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	−7	11
23	Southport	13	−10	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	−14	7