Home › Football › National League - North › Hereford v Hednesford Town

Hereford v Hednesford Town

Hereford

0–1Full time

Hednesford Town

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT · Edgar Street

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Hereford 0–1 Hednesford Town HEREFORD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hereford win~~51%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.862

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.734

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hereford win at 51%.
2′KICK-OFF Hereford v Hednesford Town
10′Little has changed for our model: Hereford 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Hereford 0–1 Hednesford Town
22′⚽ GOAL · 19' Hereford 0–1 Hednesford Town
30′19′ and it is 0–1: A. Jarvis on the scoresheet for Hednesford Town. 0–1 · 21–25–54
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Hereford win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Hednesford Town win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Hereford win 21%)
46′HALF-TIME Hereford 0–1 Hednesford Town
46′SECOND HALF Hereford 0–1 Hednesford Town
FTFULL TIME Hereford 0–1 Hednesford Town
FTHereford 0–1 Hednesford Town · Hereford win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hereford win51%

Draw22%

Hednesford Town win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Edgar Street

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hereford winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

51% The market44%

Us51%

~~Market~~44%

We make Hereford a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hereford win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hereford win	51%	44%	+8
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Hednesford Town win	26%	31%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	60%	61%	−2
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
Hereford or draw	74%	69%	+5
Hereford clean sheet	29%	–	–
Hednesford Town clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.7 5.8 3.6 1 8.4 10.2 6.4 2.7 2 7.7 9.3 5.8 2.5 3 4.8 5.8 3.6 4 2.3 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hereford down, Hednesford Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hereford at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hednesford Town away: 1.20 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Hereford, 1.25 for Hednesford Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League - North

HEREFORD

DWWWWD1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 1–1

HEDNESFORD TOWN

WDLWLW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6