Home › Football › National League - North › Hednesford Town v Spalding United

Hednesford Town v Spalding United

Hednesford Town

2–0Full time

Spalding United

National League - North · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Hednesford Town 2–0 Spalding United HEDNESFORD TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hednesford Town win~~42%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.510

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.447

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hednesford Town win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hednesford Town was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–33
1′KICK-OFF Hednesford Town v Spalding United
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Hednesford Town win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Hednesford Town 0–0 Spalding United
45′SECOND HALF Hednesford Town 0–0 Spalding United
47′Hednesford Town find the net on 46′. 0–0 · 33–40–27
47′We published Hednesford Town at 42%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Hednesford Town 1–0 Spalding United
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Hednesford Town win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Hednesford Town win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 40%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Hednesford Town win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
53′We published Hednesford Town at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
66′We published Hednesford Town at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Hednesford Town win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
75′We published Hednesford Town at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
81′We published Hednesford Town at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Hednesford Town win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
88′Hednesford Town score on 87′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′We published Hednesford Town at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Hednesford Town 2–0 Spalding United
FTFULL TIME Hednesford Town 2–0 Spalding United
FTHednesford Town 2–0 Spalding United · Hednesford Town win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hednesford Town are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hednesford Town 42%, draw 25%, Spalding United 33%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Hednesford Town v Spalding UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hednesford Town win42%

Draw25%

Spalding United win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hednesford Town

Spalding United

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - North

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hednesford Town	12	+2	18
9	Spalding United	11	+5	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hednesford town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market45%

Us42%

~~Market~~45%

We make Hednesford Town a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hednesford Town v Spalding United~~1.44 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 17~~7 v 9

~~The market · Hednesford Town win~~45% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hednesford Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hednesford Town win	42%	45%	−3
Draw	25%	25%	0
Spalding United win	33%	29%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	56%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Hednesford Town or draw	67%	71%	−4
Hednesford Town clean sheet	29%	–	–
Spalding United clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.0 8.7 5.3 2.2 1 10.0 11.9 7.4 3.1 2 7.1 8.6 5.3 2.2 3 3.4 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hednesford Town down, Spalding United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,813 National League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Hednesford Town at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Spalding United away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Hednesford Town, 1.24 for Spalding United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug

HEDNESFORD TOWN

LWLWWW0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

SPALDING UNITED

DWWWLL1–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Macclesfield	11	+8	24
2	Hereford	11	+16	23
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
4	King's Lynn Town	12	+6	20
5	Chester	11	+5	20
6	South Shields	11	+1	20
7	Hednesford Town	12	+2	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	−5	18
9	Spalding United	11	+5	17
10	Chorley	11	0	17
11	Buxton	12	−1	17
12	Bedford Town	11	−1	16
13	Worksop Town	12	−5	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	+2	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	+1	15
16	Marine	11	+1	15
17	Harborough Town	11	−1	15
18	Brackley Town	12	−8	15
19	Morecambe	11	+4	14
20	Radcliffe	12	−6	12
21	AFC Telford United	12	−7	12
22	Southport	12	−10	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	−10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7