Hebburn Town v Scarborough Athletic prediction · National League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Hebburn Town 0–2 Scarborough Athletic HEBBURN TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hebburn Town win~~39%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.629

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.670

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hebburn Town win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hebburn Town was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
1′KICK-OFF Hebburn Town v Scarborough Athletic
6′Much as we predicted: Hebburn Town was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–35
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Hebburn Town 0–1 Scarborough Athletic
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Hebburn Town win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Scarborough Athletic win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Hebburn Town win 11%)
37′We said Hebburn Town at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–66
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–66
38′Scarborough Athletic score on 37′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
45′We said Hebburn Town at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hebburn Town win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
45′SECOND HALF Hebburn Town 0–1 Scarborough Athletic
48′HALF-TIME Hebburn Town 0–1 Scarborough Athletic
60′PENALTY MISSED · 60' Hebburn Town
65′We said Hebburn Town at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Hebburn Town 0–2 Scarborough Athletic
80′Scarborough Athletic find the net on 80′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
93′Scarborough Athletic find the net on 90′. 0–2 · 0–0–100
96′Full time, 0–2. We called Hebburn Town at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Hebburn Town 0–2 Scarborough Athletic
FTHebburn Town 0–2 Scarborough Athletic · Hebburn Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hebburn Town just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hebburn Town 39%, draw 25%, Scarborough Athletic 36%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Hebburn Town v Scarborough AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hebburn Town win39%

Draw25%

Scarborough Athletic win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hebburn Town

Scarborough Athletic

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hebburn Town	11	−3	18
19	Scarborough Athletic	11	0	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hebburn town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make Hebburn Town a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hebburn Town v Scarborough Athletic~~1.40 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~7 v 19

~~The market · Hebburn Town win~~40% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hebburn Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hebburn Town win	39%	40%	−1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Scarborough Athletic win	36%	34%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Hebburn Town or draw	64%	66%	−2
Hebburn Town clean sheet	27%	–	–
Scarborough Athletic clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.7 8.9 5.8 2.6 1 9.4 11.8 7.9 3.5 2 6.4 8.3 5.4 2.4 3 3.0 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hebburn Town down, Scarborough Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,807 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Hebburn Town at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Scarborough Athletic away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Hebburn Town, 1.32 for Scarborough Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug

HEBBURN TOWN

LDLWDL0–3 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC

LLDDDL1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Macclesfield	11	+8	24
2	Hereford	11	+16	23
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
4	Chester	11	+5	20
5	South Shields	11	+1	20
6	King's Lynn Town	11	+6	19
7	Hebburn Town	11	−3	18
8	Spalding United	11	+5	17
9	Chorley	11	0	17
10	Buxton	11	−1	16
11	Bedford Town	11	−1	16
12	Hednesford Town	11	+1	15
13	Marine	11	+1	15
14	Harborough Town	11	−1	15
15	Worksop Town	11	−5	15
16	Brackley Town	11	−7	15
17	Morecambe	11	+4	14
18	Merthyr Town	11	+1	14
19	Scarborough Athletic	11	0	12
20	Southport	11	−8	9
21	Radcliffe	11	−8	9
22	AFC Telford United	11	−8	9
23	Darlington 1883	11	−9	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7