Home › Football › National League - North › Hebburn Town v Oxford City

Hebburn Town v Oxford City

Hebburn Town

0–3Full time

Oxford City

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Hebburn Town 0–3 Oxford City HEBBURN TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hebburn Town win~~41%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.655

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.507

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hebburn Town win at 41%.
5′KICK-OFF Hebburn Town v Oxford City
8′D. Johnson scores for Oxford City on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–21–60
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Hebburn Town win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Oxford City win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Hebburn Town win 18%)
29′We said Hebburn Town at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
45′SECOND HALF Hebburn Town 0–1 Oxford City
46′HALF-TIME Hebburn Town 0–1 Oxford City
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Hebburn Town 0–1 Oxford City
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Hebburn Town 0–2 Oxford City · T. Marsh
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Hebburn Town 0–2 Oxford City
62′⚽ GOAL · 60' Hebburn Town 0–2 Oxford City
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Hebburn Town 0–3 Oxford City · L. Francillette
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Hebburn Town 0–3 Oxford City
FTFULL TIME Hebburn Town 0–3 Oxford City
FTHebburn Town 0–3 Oxford City · Hebburn Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hebburn Town win41%

Draw25%

Oxford City win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hebburn town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market32%

Us41%

~~Market~~32%

We make Hebburn Town a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hebburn Town win	41%	32%	+9
Draw	25%	26%	−2
Oxford City win	35%	42%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−3
Hebburn Town or draw	65%	58%	+7
Hebburn Town clean sheet	27%	–	–
Oxford City clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.1 8.1 5.4 2.5 1 8.9 11.5 7.7 3.5 2 6.5 8.5 5.7 2.6 3 3.3 4.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hebburn Town down, Oxford City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hebburn Town at home: 2.20 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). Oxford City away: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Hebburn Town, 1.35 for Oxford City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League - North

HEBBURN TOWN

WLDLWD4–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–1

OXFORD CITY

LWWLWD2–3 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6