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Harborough Town v Worksop Town

Harborough Town

1–1Full time

Worksop Town

National League - North · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Harborough Town 1–1 Worksop Town HARBOROUGH TOWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Harborough Town win~~45%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.847

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.877

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Harborough Town win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Harborough Town 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Harborough Town v Worksop Town
11′PENALTY MISSED · 10' Harborough Town
19′A goal for Worksop Town on 18′. 0–0 · 42–30–29
19′We said Harborough Town at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Harborough Town 0–1 Worksop Town
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Harborough Town win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Worksop Town win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Harborough Town win 42%)
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Harborough Town win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 15–24–61
33′We said Harborough Town at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
45′HALF-TIME Harborough Town 0–1 Worksop Town
45′SECOND HALF Harborough Town 0–1 Worksop Town
51′We said Harborough Town at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
53′We said Harborough Town at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–44–24
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Harborough Town 1–1 Worksop Town
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Harborough Town win: 45% at kick-off, 32% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Worksop Town win 68%)
54′A goal for Harborough Town on 53′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–45–23
59′We said Harborough Town at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Harborough Town win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
68′We said Harborough Town at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Harborough Town win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Harborough Town win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
90′1–1 at the end. Our 45% on Harborough Town misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
91′We said Harborough Town at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Harborough Town 1–1 Worksop Town
FTHarborough Town 1–1 Worksop Town · Harborough Town win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Harborough Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Harborough Town 45%, draw 25%, Worksop Town 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Harborough Town v Worksop TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Harborough Town win45%

Draw25%

Worksop Town win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Harborough Town

Worksop Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - North

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Worksop Town	12	−5	16
17	Harborough Town	11	−1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · harborough town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market49%

Us45%

~~Market~~49%

We make Harborough Town a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Harborough Town v Worksop Town~~1.49 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 16~~17 v 13

~~The market · Harborough Town win~~49% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Harborough Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Harborough Town win	45%	49%	−4
Draw	25%	25%	0
Worksop Town win	30%	26%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	59%	−10
Both teams to score	52%	60%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	38%	−10
Harborough Town or draw	70%	74%	−4
Harborough Town clean sheet	32%	–	–
Worksop Town clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.2 8.5 4.8 1 10.7 11.9 6.9 2.7 2 7.8 8.8 5.1 2.0 3 3.9 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Harborough Town down, Worksop Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,813 National League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Harborough Town at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Worksop Town away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Harborough Town, 1.16 for Worksop Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HAR 3–2 WOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug

HARBOROUGH TOWN

WLLDLW2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

WORKSOP TOWN

WLWLWD1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Macclesfield	11	+8	24
2	Hereford	11	+16	23
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
4	King's Lynn Town	12	+6	20
5	Chester	11	+5	20
6	South Shields	11	+1	20
7	Hednesford Town	12	+2	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	−5	18
9	Spalding United	11	+5	17
10	Chorley	11	0	17
11	Buxton	12	−1	17
12	Bedford Town	11	−1	16
13	Worksop Town	12	−5	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	+2	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	+1	15
16	Marine	11	+1	15
17	Harborough Town	11	−1	15
18	Brackley Town	12	−8	15
19	Morecambe	11	+4	14
20	Radcliffe	12	−6	12
21	AFC Telford United	12	−7	12
22	Southport	12	−10	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	−10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7