Home › Football › National League - North › Harborough Town v Southport

Harborough Town v Southport

Harborough Town

1–0Full time

Southport

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Harborough Town 1–0 Southport HARBOROUGH TOWN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Harborough Town win~~47%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.423

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.272

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Harborough Town win at 47%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Harborough Town 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
2′KICK-OFF Harborough Town v Southport
10′⚽ GOAL · 8' Harborough Town 1–0 Southport
24′Harborough Town find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Harborough Town win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
46′We said Harborough Town at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
46′HALF-TIME Harborough Town 1–0 Southport
46′SECOND HALF Harborough Town 1–0 Southport
FTFULL TIME Harborough Town 1–0 Southport
FTHarborough Town 1–0 Southport · Harborough Town win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Harborough Town win47%

Draw25%

Southport win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · harborough town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

47% The market57%

Us47%

~~Market~~57%

We make Harborough Town a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · harborough town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Harborough Town win	47%	57%	−11
Draw	25%	23%	+3
Southport win	28%	20%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	48%	56%	−7
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	78%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
Harborough Town or draw	72%	80%	−8
Harborough Town clean sheet	34%	–	–
Southport clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.6 8.2 4.4 1 11.2 11.9 6.5 2.4 2 8.4 9.0 4.9 3 4.3 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Harborough Town down, Southport across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Harborough Town at home: 1.40 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Southport away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Harborough Town, 1.10 for Southport. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League - North

HARBOROUGH TOWN

LWLLDL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–1

SOUTHPORT

LLLWLD1–5 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6