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Darlington 1883 v Spennymoor Town

Darlington 1883

3–0Full time

Spennymoor Town

National League - North · SAT 24 OCT · Blackwell Meadows

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Darlington 1883 3–0 Spennymoor Town DARLINGTON 1883 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Darlington 1883 win~~46%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.447

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.399

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Darlington 1883 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Darlington 1883 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′We published Darlington 1883 at 46%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–17–14
1′KICK-OFF Darlington 1883 v Spennymoor Town
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Darlington 1883 1–0 Spennymoor Town
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Darlington 1883 win: 46% at kick-off, 69% now
2′Darlington 1883 score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–17–13
11′We published Darlington 1883 at 46%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–18–13
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
45′SECOND HALF Darlington 1883 1–0 Spennymoor Town
51′HALF-TIME Darlington 1883 1–0 Spennymoor Town
52′We published Darlington 1883 at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
56′We published Darlington 1883 at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Darlington 1883 win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Darlington 1883 2–0 Spennymoor Town
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Darlington 1883 win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
58′Darlington 1883 find the net on 57′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Darlington 1883 win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
69′We published Darlington 1883 at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Darlington 1883 3–0 Spennymoor Town
70′A goal for Darlington 1883 on 70′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
94′Full time, 3–0. We called Darlington 1883 at 46% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Darlington 1883 3–0 Spennymoor Town
FTDarlington 1883 3–0 Spennymoor Town · Darlington 1883 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Darlington 1883 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Darlington 1883 46%, draw 23%, Spennymoor Town 31%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Darlington 1883 v Spennymoor TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Darlington 1883 win46%

Draw23%

Spennymoor Town win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 13

VenueBlackwell Meadows

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Darlington 1883

Spennymoor Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - North

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
23	Darlington 1883	12	−10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · darlington 1883 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Darlington 1883 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Darlington 1883 v Spennymoor Town~~1.69 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~23 v 24

~~The market · Darlington 1883 win~~48% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Darlington 1883 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Darlington 1883 win	46%	48%	−2
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Spennymoor Town win	31%	27%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	61%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	41%	−5
Darlington 1883 or draw	69%	73%	−4
Darlington 1883 clean sheet	27%	–	–
Spennymoor Town clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 6.7 4.4 2.0 1 8.4 10.7 7.2 3.3 2 6.9 9.0 6.0 2.7 3 3.9 5.1 3.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Darlington 1883 down, Spennymoor Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,813 National League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Darlington 1883 at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Spennymoor Town away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Darlington 1883, 1.34 for Spennymoor Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPE 0–4 DAR · DAR 1–0 SPE · SPE 2–1 DAR · DAR 1–0 SPE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug

DARLINGTON 1883

LLLDDL0–2 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

SPENNYMOOR TOWN

DLLDDL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Macclesfield	11	+8	24
2	Hereford	11	+16	23
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
4	King's Lynn Town	12	+6	20
5	Chester	11	+5	20
6	South Shields	11	+1	20
7	Hednesford Town	12	+2	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	−5	18
9	Spalding United	11	+5	17
10	Chorley	11	0	17
11	Buxton	12	−1	17
12	Bedford Town	11	−1	16
13	Worksop Town	12	−5	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	+2	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	+1	15
16	Marine	11	+1	15
17	Harborough Town	11	−1	15
18	Brackley Town	12	−8	15
19	Morecambe	11	+4	14
20	Radcliffe	12	−6	12
21	AFC Telford United	12	−7	12
22	Southport	12	−10	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	−10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7