Home › Football › National League - North › Darlington 1883 v Merthyr Town

Darlington 1883 v Merthyr Town

Darlington 1883

1–1Full time

Merthyr Town

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT · Blackwell Meadows

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Darlington 1883 1–1 Merthyr Town DARLINGTON 1883 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Darlington 1883 win~~41%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.913

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.847

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Darlington 1883 win at 41%.
4′Much as we predicted: Darlington 1883 was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–36
4′KICK-OFF Darlington 1883 v Merthyr Town
45′SECOND HALF Darlington 1883 0–1 Merthyr Town
47′45′ and it is 0–0: Merthyr Town have scored. 0–0 · 34–34–31
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Darlington 1883 0–1 Merthyr Town
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Merthyr Town
78′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Merthyr Town
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Darlington 1883 1–1 Merthyr Town · S. Pearson
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Darlington 1883 1–1 Merthyr Town
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Darlington 1883 1–1 Merthyr Town
FTFULL TIME Darlington 1883 1–1 Merthyr Town
FTDarlington 1883 1–1 Merthyr Town · Darlington 1883 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Darlington 1883 win41%

Draw22%

Merthyr Town win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Blackwell Meadows

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · darlington 1883 winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market39%

Us41%

~~Market~~39%

We make Darlington 1883 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · darlington 1883 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Darlington 1883 win	41%	39%	+2
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Merthyr Town win	37%	36%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	67%	64%	+4
Both teams to score	67%	66%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
Darlington 1883 or draw	63%	64%	−1
Darlington 1883 clean sheet	19%	–	–
Merthyr Town clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.2 5.3 4.4 2.5 1 5.6 9.2 7.7 4.4 2 5.0 8.2 6.8 3.9 3 3.0 4.9 4.1 2.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Darlington 1883 down, Merthyr Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Darlington 1883 at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Merthyr Town away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Darlington 1883, 1.69 for Merthyr Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DAR 3–1 MER · MER 3–1 DAR

Form · last six in National League - North

DARLINGTON 1883

LWLLLD1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 1–1

MERTHYR TOWN

DLWWDL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6