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Chorley v Buxton

Chorley

2–3Full time

Buxton

National League - North · SAT 24 OCT · Victory Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Chorley 2–3 Buxton CHORLEY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chorley win~~42%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.664

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.515

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chorley win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chorley 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–34
1′KICK-OFF Chorley v Buxton
35′We said Chorley at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
35′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 14–23–63
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Chorley 0–1 Buxton
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Chorley win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Buxton win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Chorley win 37%)
36′A goal for Buxton on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–23–63
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Chorley 1–1 Buxton
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Chorley win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
39′Chorley score on 39′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 36–33–31
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Chorley 1–2 Buxton
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Chorley win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
44′Buxton find the net on 43′. 1–2. 1–2 · 12–23–65
45′SECOND HALF Chorley 1–2 Buxton
46′HALF-TIME Chorley 1–2 Buxton
53′We said Chorley at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
62′We said Chorley at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–93
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Chorley 1–3 Buxton
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Chorley win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
63′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–5–94
64′A goal for Buxton on 63′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
86′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–8–92
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Chorley 2–3 Buxton
87′Chorley score on 87′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–7–93
94′2–3 at the end. Our 42% on Chorley misses, and the record keeps it. 2–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Chorley 2–3 Buxton
FTChorley 2–3 Buxton · Chorley win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chorley are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chorley 42%, draw 23%, Buxton 34%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Chorley v BuxtonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chorley win42%

Draw23%

Buxton win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 13

VenueVictory Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chorley

Buxton

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - North

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Chorley	11	0	17
11	Buxton	12	−1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chorley winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market32%

Us42%

~~Market~~32%

We make Chorley a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chorley v Buxton~~1.65 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 17~~10 v 11

~~The market · Chorley win~~32% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chorley win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chorley win	42%	32%	+10
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Buxton win	34%	42%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%	+5
Both teams to score	61%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	35%	+3
Chorley or draw	66%	58%	+8
Chorley clean sheet	24%	–	–
Buxton clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.6 6.7 4.8 2.4 1 7.6 10.5 7.7 3.8 2 6.1 8.6 6.2 3.1 3 3.3 4.8 3.5 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chorley down, Buxton across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,813 National League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.62 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chorley at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Buxton away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Chorley, 1.47 for Buxton. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.62

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CHO 1–2 BUX · BUX 3–2 CHO · BUX 1–0 CHO · CHO 3–0 BUX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug

CHORLEY

DLWLWW2–2 · 0–4 · 5–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

BUXTON

LWWLLD0–4 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Macclesfield	11	+8	24
2	Hereford	11	+16	23
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
4	King's Lynn Town	12	+6	20
5	Chester	11	+5	20
6	South Shields	11	+1	20
7	Hednesford Town	12	+2	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	−5	18
9	Spalding United	11	+5	17
10	Chorley	11	0	17
11	Buxton	12	−1	17
12	Bedford Town	11	−1	16
13	Worksop Town	12	−5	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	+2	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	+1	15
16	Marine	11	+1	15
17	Harborough Town	11	−1	15
18	Brackley Town	12	−8	15
19	Morecambe	11	+4	14
20	Radcliffe	12	−6	12
21	AFC Telford United	12	−7	12
22	Southport	12	−10	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	−10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7