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Chorley v AFC Telford United

Chorley

2–1Full time

AFC Telford United

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT · Victory Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Chorley 2–1 AFC Telford United CHORLEY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chorley win~~48%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.412

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.573

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chorley win at 48%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Chorley 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–28
2′KICK-OFF Chorley v AFC Telford United
29′⚽ GOAL · 27' Chorley 1–0 AFC Telford United
44′A. Blakeman scores for Chorley on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–7
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Chorley win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
45′SECOND HALF Chorley 1–0 AFC Telford United
46′⚽ GOAL · 47' Chorley 2–0 AFC Telford United
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Chorley 2–1 AFC Telford United · J. Moore
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Chorley 2–1 AFC Telford United · J. Moore
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Chorley 2–1 AFC Telford United
FTFULL TIME Chorley 2–1 AFC Telford United
FTChorley 2–1 AFC Telford United · Chorley win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chorley win48%

Draw24%

AFC Telford United win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Victory Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chorley winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

48% The market38%

Us48%

~~Market~~38%

We make Chorley a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chorley win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chorley win	48%	38%	+9
Draw	24%	26%	−2
AFC Telford United win	29%	36%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Chorley or draw	71%	64%	+7
Chorley clean sheet	29%	–	–
AFC Telford United clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.3 6.6 4.2 1 8.8 10.9 6.9 2.9 2 7.4 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.2 5.2 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chorley down, AFC Telford United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chorley at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Telford United away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Chorley, 1.27 for AFC Telford United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AFC 2–2 CHO · CHO 3–1 AFC · CHO 1–0 AFC · AFC 1–0 CHO

Form · last six in National League - North

CHORLEY

DDLWLW1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 5–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

AFC TELFORD UNITED

LLWWDL1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6