Chester v Marine prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChesterDrawMarine

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Chester 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chester are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chester 51%, draw 25%, Marine 23%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Chester v MarineBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Chester win51%

Draw25%

Marine win23%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundNational League North · matchday 14

VenueDeva Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chester

Marine

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - North

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Chester	11	+5	20
16	Marine	11	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chester winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Chester a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chester v Marine~~1.54 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 15~~5 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chester win	51%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Marine win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Chester or draw	77%	–	–
Chester clean sheet	40%	–	–
Marine clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 8.6 8.1 3.7 1 13.1 11.8 5.6 2 9.9 9.1 4.3 3 5.1 4.7 2.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chester down, Marine across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,813 National League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chester at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Marine away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Chester, 0.93 for Marine. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–1 CHE · CHE 1–1 MAR · CHE 2–1 MAR · MAR 2–3 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept

CHESTER

DLLWWL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–3

MARINE

LLWWWD0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Macclesfield	11	+8	24
2	Hereford	11	+16	23
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
4	King's Lynn Town	12	+6	20
5	Chester	11	+5	20
6	South Shields	11	+1	20
7	Hednesford Town	12	+2	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	−5	18
9	Spalding United	11	+5	17
10	Chorley	11	0	17
11	Buxton	12	−1	17
12	Bedford Town	11	−1	16
13	Worksop Town	12	−5	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	+2	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	+1	15
16	Marine	11	+1	15
17	Harborough Town	11	−1	15
18	Brackley Town	12	−8	15
19	Morecambe	11	+4	14
20	Radcliffe	12	−6	12
21	AFC Telford United	12	−7	12
22	Southport	12	−10	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	−10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7