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Chester v Bedford Town

Chester

1–0Full time

Bedford Town

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT · Deva Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Chester 1–0 Bedford Town CHESTER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chester win~~53%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.328

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.260

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chester win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chester was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–23
1′KICK-OFF Chester v Bedford Town
45′We said Chester at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–38–21
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Chester win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
45′SECOND HALF Chester 0–0 Bedford Town
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Chester 1–0 Bedford Town
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Chester 1–0 Bedford Town
FTFULL TIME Chester 1–0 Bedford Town
FTChester 1–0 Bedford Town · Chester win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chester win53%

Draw24%

Bedford Town win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Deva Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chester winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

53% The market58%

Us53%

~~Market~~58%

We make Chester a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chester win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chester win	53%	58%	−5
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Bedford Town win	23%	19%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−6
Chester or draw	77%	81%	−4
Chester clean sheet	36%	–	–
Bedford Town clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.6 6.7 3.5 1 11.0 11.1 5.8 2.0 2 9.3 9.5 4.9 3 5.4 5.4 2.8 4 2.4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chester down, Bedford Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chester at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bedford Town away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Chester, 1.04 for Bedford Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BED 1–2 CHE · CHE 1–2 BED

Form · last six in National League - North

CHESTER

DLDLLW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 4–1

BEDFORD TOWN

WWWWLD3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6