Buxton v Harborough Town prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BuxtonDrawHarborough Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Buxton 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Buxton are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Buxton 54%, draw 23%, Harborough Town 23%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Buxton v Harborough TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Buxton win54%

Draw23%

Harborough Town win23%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundNational League North · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Buxton

Harborough Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - North

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Buxton	13	0	20
16	Harborough Town	12	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · buxton winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Buxton a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Buxton v Harborough Town~~1.80 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 16~~8 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Buxton win

Published at 53%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buxton win	54%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Harborough Town win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Buxton or draw	77%	–	–
Buxton clean sheet	35%	–	–
Harborough Town clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.9 6.4 3.4 1 10.4 10.7 5.8 2.1 2 9.0 9.5 5.1 3 5.4 5.7 3.0 4 2.5 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Buxton down, Harborough Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,825 National League - North matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Buxton at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Harborough Town away: 0.60 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Buxton, 1.07 for Harborough Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept

BUXTON

WWLLDW5–0 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

HARBOROUGH TOWN

LLDLWD0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	12	+17	26
2	Oxford City	12	+14	24
3	Macclesfield	12	+7	24
4	South Shields	12	+3	23
5	King's Lynn Town	13	+6	21
6	Hednesford Town	13	+4	21
7	Chester	12	+3	20
8	Buxton	13	0	20
9	Bedford Town	12	0	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	−5	19
11	Morecambe	12	+6	17
12	Spalding United	12	+3	17
13	Chorley	12	−1	17
14	Worksop Town	13	−5	17
15	Marine	12	+1	16
16	Harborough Town	12	−1	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	+1	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	−1	15
19	Radcliffe	13	−5	15
20	Brackley Town	13	−9	15
21	AFC Telford United	13	−7	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	−7	11
23	Southport	13	−10	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	−14	7