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Brackley Town v Spennymoor Town

Brackley Town

2–1Full time

Spennymoor Town

National League - North · SAT 10 OCT · St James Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Brackley Town 2–1 Spennymoor Town BRACKLEY TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brackley Town win~~51%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.365

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.445

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brackley Town win at 51%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Brackley Town 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
3′KICK-OFF Brackley Town v Spennymoor Town
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Brackley Town 1–0 Spennymoor Town
25′17′ and it is 1–0: F. Roberts on the scoresheet for Brackley Town. 1–0 · 76–17–8
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Brackley Town win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 35' Brackley Town 1–1 Spennymoor Town
45′SECOND HALF Brackley Town 1–1 Spennymoor Town
47′Spennymoor Town ahead on 35′ through J. Jenkins. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–38–22
47′HALF-TIME Brackley Town 1–1 Spennymoor Town
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Brackley Town win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Brackley Town 2–1 Spennymoor Town · J. Jenkins
67′⚽ GOAL · 68' Brackley Town 2–1 Spennymoor Town
FTFULL TIME Brackley Town 2–1 Spennymoor Town
FTBrackley Town 2–1 Spennymoor Town · Brackley Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Brackley Town win51%

Draw24%

Spennymoor Town win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · St James Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brackley town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

51% The market46%

Us51%

~~Market~~46%

We make Brackley Town a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brackley Town win	51%	46%	+5
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Spennymoor Town win	25%	28%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−3
Brackley Town or draw	75%	72%	+3
Brackley Town clean sheet	34%	–	–
Spennymoor Town clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.4 7.0 3.8 1 10.5 11.2 6.2 2.3 2 8.6 9.3 5.1 3 4.9 5.2 2.9 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brackley Town down, Spennymoor Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,795 National League - North matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brackley Town at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Spennymoor Town away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Brackley Town, 1.10 for Spennymoor Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BRA 4–1 SPE · SPE 2–2 BRA · SPE 0–1 BRA · BRA 3–1 SPE

Form · last six in National League - North

BRACKLEY TOWN

DWLLDW2–2 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–2

SPENNYMOOR TOWN

LDLLDD1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hereford	10	+17	23
2	Macclesfield	10	+7	21
3	Oxford City	10	+11	20
4	South Shields	10	+2	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	0	18
6	Spalding United	10	+6	17
7	Chester	10	+4	17
8	King's Lynn Town	10	+5	16
9	Buxton	10	0	16
10	Bedford Town	10	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	+5	14
12	Chorley	10	−1	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	+1	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	+3	12
15	Hednesford Town	10	0	12
16	Marine	10	0	12
17	Harborough Town	10	−2	12
18	Worksop Town	10	−6	12
19	Brackley Town	10	−8	12
20	Southport	10	−7	9
21	AFC Telford United	10	−7	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	−9	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	−10	7
24	Radcliffe	10	−11	6