Bedford Town v Hednesford Town prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bedford TownDrawHednesford Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Bedford Town 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bedford Town are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bedford Town 41%, draw 24%, Hednesford Town 35%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Bedford Town v Hednesford TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bedford Town win41%

Draw24%

Hednesford Town win35%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundNational League North · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bedford Town

Hednesford Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - North

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hednesford Town	12	+2	18
12	Bedford Town	11	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bedford town winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Bedford Town a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bedford Town v Hednesford Town~~1.60 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 18~~12 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bedford Town win	41%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Hednesford Town win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Bedford Town or draw	65%	–	–
Bedford Town clean sheet	24%	–	–
Hednesford Town clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.9 7.1 5.0 2.5 1 7.8 10.7 7.8 3.8 2 6.1 8.5 6.1 3.0 3 3.3 4.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bedford Town down, Hednesford Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,813 National League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bedford Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hednesford Town away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Bedford Town, 1.45 for Hednesford Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BED 1–3 HED · HED 1–2 BED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept

BEDFORD TOWN

WWLDLW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

HEDNESFORD TOWN

WLWWWW3–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Macclesfield	11	+8	24
2	Hereford	11	+16	23
3	Oxford City	11	+14	23
4	King's Lynn Town	12	+6	20
5	Chester	11	+5	20
6	South Shields	11	+1	20
7	Hednesford Town	12	+2	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	−5	18
9	Spalding United	11	+5	17
10	Chorley	11	0	17
11	Buxton	12	−1	17
12	Bedford Town	11	−1	16
13	Worksop Town	12	−5	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	+2	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	+1	15
16	Marine	11	+1	15
17	Harborough Town	11	−1	15
18	Brackley Town	12	−8	15
19	Morecambe	11	+4	14
20	Radcliffe	12	−6	12
21	AFC Telford United	12	−7	12
22	Southport	12	−10	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	−10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	−11	7