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Model 1.2

Home › Football › National League - North › AFC Telford United v Hebburn Town

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AFC Telford United v Hebburn Town

AFC Telford United
2–2Full time
Hebburn Town

National League - North · SAT 24 OCT · New Bucks Head

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
AFC Telford United 2–2 Hebburn Town AFC TELFORD UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said AFC Telford United win52%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.932
The market’s Brier score0.855

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Telford United win at 52%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: AFC Telford United 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF AFC Telford United v Hebburn Town
  4. 32′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–25–55
  5. 32′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 20–25–55
  6. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' AFC Telford United 0–1 Hebburn Town
  7. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 20% now
  8. 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Hebburn Town win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was AFC Telford United win 45%)
  9. 33′Hebburn Town score on 33′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–55
  10. 33′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–55
  11. 45′SECOND HALF AFC Telford United 0–1 Hebburn Town
  12. 46′HALF-TIME AFC Telford United 0–1 Hebburn Town
  13. 47′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
  14. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
  15. 59′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
  16. 70′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–57–17
  17. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' AFC Telford United 1–1 Hebburn Town
  18. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 27% now
  19. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Hebburn Town win 73%)
  20. 72′AFC Telford United find the net on 71′. 1–1. 1–1 · 25–59–16
  21. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
  22. 83′We said AFC Telford United at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  23. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
  24. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' AFC Telford United 2–1 Hebburn Town
  25. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
  26. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' AFC Telford United win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 80%)
  27. 85′A goal for AFC Telford United on 84′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  28. 88′We said AFC Telford United at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  29. 89′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 7–89–4
  30. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' AFC Telford United 2–2 Hebburn Town
  31. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 7% now
  32. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was AFC Telford United win 96%)
  33. 91′Hebburn Town score on 90′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 5–92–3
  34. 92′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–3
  35. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
  36. 95′2–2 at the end. Our 52% on AFC Telford United misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  37. FTFULL TIME AFC Telford United 2–2 Hebburn Town
  38. FTAFC Telford United 2–2 Hebburn Town · AFC Telford United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AFC Telford United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AFC Telford United 52%, draw 23%, Hebburn Town 26%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on AFC Telford United v Hebburn TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

AFC Telford United win52%
Draw23%
Hebburn Town win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 13

VenueNew Bucks Head

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFC Telford United

Hebburn Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - North

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - North

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Hebburn Town12−518
21AFC Telford United12−712

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc telford united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
52% The market48%
Us52%
Market48%

We make AFC Telford United a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · AFC Telford United v Hebburn Town1.83 – 1.22
Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 12 v 1821 v 8
The market · AFC Telford United win48% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:20
Our probability · AFC Telford United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
AFC Telford United win52%48%+4
Draw23%25%−2
Hebburn Town win26%27%−1
Over 2.5 goals58%58%0
Both teams to score58%60%−2
Over 1.5 goals80%79%+1
Over 3.5 goals36%38%−2
AFC Telford United or draw74%73%+1
AFC Telford United clean sheet30%––
Hebburn Town clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%
0123450 4.9 6.0 3.6 1 8.9 10.3 6.3 2.6 2 7.9 9.4 5.7 2.4 3 4.8 5.7 3.5 4 2.3 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Telford United down, Hebburn Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept

AFC TELFORD UNITED

WWDLLW1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 2–1

HEBBURN TOWN

DLWDLL1–1 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Macclesfield11+824
2Hereford11+1623
3Oxford City11+1423
4King's Lynn Town12+620
5Chester11+520
6South Shields11+120
7Hednesford Town12+218
8Hebburn Town12−518
9Spalding United11+517
10Chorley11017
11Buxton12−117
12Bedford Town11−116
13Worksop Town12−516
14Scarborough Athletic12+215
15Merthyr Town12+115
16Marine11+115
17Harborough Town11−115
18Brackley Town12−815
19Morecambe11+414
20Radcliffe12−612
21AFC Telford United12−712
22Southport12−109
23Darlington 188312−108
24Spennymoor Town11−117

The competition's standings before kick-off.