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AFC Telford United v Hebburn Town
AFC Telford United
Hebburn TownNational League - North · SAT 24 OCT · New Bucks Head
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Telford United win at 52%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: AFC Telford United 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
- 1′KICK-OFF AFC Telford United v Hebburn Town
- 32′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–25–55
- 32′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 20–25–55
- 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' AFC Telford United 0–1 Hebburn Town
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 20% now
- 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Hebburn Town win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was AFC Telford United win 45%)
- 33′Hebburn Town score on 33′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–55
- 33′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–55
- 45′SECOND HALF AFC Telford United 0–1 Hebburn Town
- 46′HALF-TIME AFC Telford United 0–1 Hebburn Town
- 47′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
- 59′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
- 70′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–57–17
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' AFC Telford United 1–1 Hebburn Town
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 27% now
- 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Hebburn Town win 73%)
- 72′AFC Telford United find the net on 71′. 1–1. 1–1 · 25–59–16
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
- 83′We said AFC Telford United at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' AFC Telford United 2–1 Hebburn Town
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
- 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' AFC Telford United win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 80%)
- 85′A goal for AFC Telford United on 84′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
- 88′We said AFC Telford United at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
- 89′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 7–89–4
- 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' AFC Telford United 2–2 Hebburn Town
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 7% now
- 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was AFC Telford United win 96%)
- 91′Hebburn Town score on 90′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 5–92–3
- 92′We said AFC Telford United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–3
- 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' AFC Telford United win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
- 95′2–2 at the end. Our 52% on AFC Telford United misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME AFC Telford United 2–2 Hebburn Town
- FTAFC Telford United 2–2 Hebburn Town · AFC Telford United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
AFC Telford United are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: AFC Telford United 52%, draw 23%, Hebburn Town 26%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
AFC Telford United win52%
Hebburn Town win26%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
RoundNational League North · matchday 13
VenueNew Bucks Head
Match timeline
All events
AFC Telford UnitedMIN
Hebburn TownEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
AFC Telford United
Hebburn Town
Last match: 17 Oct · National League - North
Last match: 17 Oct · National League - North
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make AFC Telford United a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Telford United win | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | −2 |
| Hebburn Town win | 26% | 27% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| AFC Telford United or draw | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| AFC Telford United clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Hebburn Town clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2022/23No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 5 Sept
AFC TELFORD UNITED
HEBBURN TOWN
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macclesfield | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 2 | Hereford | 11 | +16 | 23 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 11 | +14 | 23 |
| 4 | King's Lynn Town | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 5 | Chester | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 | South Shields | 11 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 | Hednesford Town | 12 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 | Hebburn Town | 12 | −5 | 18 |
| 9 | Spalding United | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 10 | Chorley | 11 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 | Buxton | 12 | −1 | 17 |
| 12 | Bedford Town | 11 | −1 | 16 |
| 13 | Worksop Town | 12 | −5 | 16 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 15 | Merthyr Town | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 16 | Marine | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 11 | −1 | 15 |
| 18 | Brackley Town | 12 | −8 | 15 |
| 19 | Morecambe | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 20 | Radcliffe | 12 | −6 | 12 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 12 | −7 | 12 |
| 22 | Southport | 12 | −10 | 9 |
| 23 | Darlington 1883 | 12 | −10 | 8 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 11 | −11 | 7 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Macclesfield
Hereford
Oxford City
King's Lynn Town
Chester
South Shields
Hednesford Town
Spalding United
Chorley
Buxton
Bedford Town
Worksop Town
Scarborough Athletic
Merthyr Town
Marine
Harborough Town
Brackley Town
Morecambe
Radcliffe
Southport
Darlington 1883
Spennymoor Town