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Home › Football › National League - North › AFC Telford United v Darlington 1883

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AFC Telford United v Darlington 1883

AFC Telford United
2–1Full time
Darlington 1883

National League - North · SAT 17 OCT · New Bucks Head

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
AFC Telford United 2–1 Darlington 1883 AFC TELFORD UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said AFC Telford United win49%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.400
The market’s Brier score0.409

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Telford United win at 49%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF AFC Telford United v Darlington 1883
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: AFC Telford United 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
  4. 8′Little has changed for our model: AFC Telford United 49% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–28
  5. 16′We said AFC Telford United at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–23–54
  6. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' AFC Telford United 0–1 Darlington 1883
  7. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' AFC Telford United win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
  8. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Darlington 1883 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was AFC Telford United win 23%)
  9. 17′Darlington 1883 score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–23–54
  10. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' AFC Telford United 1–1 Darlington 1883
  11. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' AFC Telford United win: 49% at kick-off, 44% now
  12. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' AFC Telford United win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Darlington 1883 win 27%)
  13. 28′AFC Telford United find the net on 28′. 1–1. 1–1 · 44–29–27
  14. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' AFC Telford United win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
  15. 45′SECOND HALF AFC Telford United 1–1 Darlington 1883
  16. 47′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 38–37–25
  17. 47′HALF-TIME AFC Telford United 1–1 Darlington 1883
  18. 49′We said AFC Telford United at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–38–25
  19. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was AFC Telford United win 35%)
  20. 56′We said AFC Telford United at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–42–23
  21. 65′We said AFC Telford United at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–20
  22. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' AFC Telford United win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
  23. 73′We said AFC Telford United at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
  24. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' AFC Telford United 2–1 Darlington 1883
  25. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' AFC Telford United win: 49% at kick-off, 84% now
  26. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' AFC Telford United win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
  27. 75′A goal for AFC Telford United on 74′. 1–1 · 21–64–15
  28. 75′GOAL DISALLOWED · 75' AFC Telford United
  29. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' AFC Telford United win: 49% at kick-off, 21% now
  30. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was AFC Telford United win 21%)
  31. 77′We said AFC Telford United at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
  32. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' AFC Telford United win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  33. 81′We said AFC Telford United at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–10
  34. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' AFC Telford United win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
  35. 87′We said AFC Telford United at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–6
  36. 92′We said AFC Telford United at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  37. 94′We said AFC Telford United at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  38. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' AFC Telford United 2–1 Darlington 1883
  39. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' AFC Telford United win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
  40. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' AFC Telford United win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
  41. 95′A goal for AFC Telford United on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  42. 95′2–1 at the end. Our 49% on AFC Telford United comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  43. FTFULL TIME AFC Telford United 2–1 Darlington 1883
  44. FTAFC Telford United 2–1 Darlington 1883 · AFC Telford United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AFC Telford United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AFC Telford United 49%, draw 23%, Darlington 1883 29%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on AFC Telford United v Darlington 1883Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AFC Telford United win49%
Draw23%
Darlington 1883 win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League North · matchday 12

VenueNew Bucks Head

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFC Telford United

Darlington 1883

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
22AFC Telford United11−89
23Darlington 188311−98

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc telford united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
49% The market48%
Us49%
Market48%

We make AFC Telford United a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · AFC Telford United v Darlington 18831.78 – 1.31
Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 AugW2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 9 v 822 v 23
The market · AFC Telford United win48% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · AFC Telford United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
AFC Telford United win49%48%+1
Draw23%24%−1
Darlington 1883 win29%28%+1
Over 2.5 goals59%63%−4
Both teams to score60%64%−4
Over 1.5 goals81%82%−1
Over 3.5 goals37%43%−6
AFC Telford United or draw71%72%−1
AFC Telford United clean sheet27%––
Darlington 1883 clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 4.6 6.2 4.0 1 8.3 10.4 6.8 3.0 2 7.2 9.2 6.0 2.7 3 4.3 5.5 3.6 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Telford United down, Darlington 1883 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.14
Over 2.56 of 7
Both scored4 of 7
Last meetingsAFC 1–1 DAR · DAR 0–6 AFC · DAR 2–2 AFC · DAR 3–1 AFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - North this season · since 31 Aug

AFC TELFORD UNITED

LWWDLL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 1–2

DARLINGTON 1883

WLLLDD1–0 · 0–2 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Macclesfield11+824
2Hereford11+1623
3Oxford City11+1423
4Chester11+520
5South Shields11+120
6King's Lynn Town11+619
7Hebburn Town11−318
8Spalding United11+517
9Chorley11017
10Buxton11−116
11Bedford Town11−116
12Hednesford Town11+115
13Marine11+115
14Harborough Town11−115
15Worksop Town11−515
16Brackley Town11−715
17Morecambe11+414
18Merthyr Town11+114
19Scarborough Athletic11012
20Southport11−89
21Radcliffe11−89
22AFC Telford United11−89
23Darlington 188311−98
24Spennymoor Town11−117

The competition's standings before kick-off.