York v Port Vale prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

York 2–0 Port Vale YORK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said York win~~42%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.502

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.417

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said York win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: York was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
1′KICK-OFF York v Port Vale
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was York win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME York 0–0 Port Vale
45′SECOND HALF York 0–0 Port Vale
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' York win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
52′We said York at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–46–23
55′We said York at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–22
55′We published York at 42%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
55′York ahead on 54′ through Zak Johnson. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' York 1–0 Port Vale
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' York win: 42% at kick-off, 78% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' York win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 48%)
61′We published York at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
62′We published York at 42%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
62′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' York 2–0 Port Vale
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' York win: 42% at kick-off, 97% now
63′Alex Hunt scores for York on 62′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' York · On: Joseph Rabole Felix · Off: Jack Hunt
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' York · On: Alex Newby · Off: Frankie Maguire
68′Alex Hunt scores for York on 61′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Port Vale · On: Max Watters · Off: Oliver Lynch
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Port Vale · On: Onel Hernández · Off: Jordan Gabriel
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Port Vale · On: George Cardinal Joseph·Hall · Off: Rhys Walters
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Port Vale · On: Maleace asamoah · Off: Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' York · On: Hiram Boateng · Off: Alex Hunt
81′We published York at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' York · On: J. Stones · Off: Ollie Banks
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Kyle Dempsey · Port Vale
90′Full time, 2–0. We called York at 42% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME York 2–0 Port Vale
FTYork 2–0 Port Vale · York win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

York are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: York 42%, draw 28%, Port Vale 30%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on York v Port ValeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

York win42%

Draw28%

Port Vale win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueYork`s LNER Community Stadium

Line-ups

York

3-4-2-1

Port Vale

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

York

Port Vale

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	York	11	+6	17
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Mamdani loves Arsenal. He should challenge them to cut ties with the UAE over Sudan | Sasha Lezhnev and John PrendergastThe Guardian · 23 Oct 15:30 · Arsenal, York

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

York

3-4-2-1

1 Alfie Shane McNally

2 R. Fallowfield

5 Z. Johnson

3 M. Kitching

32 J. Hunt

8 A. Hunt

16 A. Read

12 H. Boyes

28 O. Banks

11 F. Maguire

10 O. Pearce

Coach · S. Lindsey

Substitutes

21 · H. Boateng

23 · J. Felix

15 · J. King

30 · A. Newby

9 · J. Stones

31 · G. Sykes-Kenworthy

24 · M. Williams

Port Vale

3-5-2

20 M. Maroši

25 C. Humphreys

4 J. Moon

2 K. John

6 J. Lawrence-Gabriel

38 R. Walters

7 G. Byers

10 K. Dempsey

3 J. Headley

14 O. Lynch

24 K. Figueroa

Coach · J. Brady

Substitutes

27 · M. Asamoah

33 · G. Hall

11 · O. Hernández

36 · M. Watters

1 · J. Smith

22 · L. Montsma

12 · A. McGowan

Our number · york winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

42% The market47%

Us42%

~~Market~~47%

We make York a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · York v Port Vale~~1.32 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~6 v 20

~~The market · York win~~47% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · York win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
York win	42%	47%	−5
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Port Vale win	30%	26%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	51%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	55%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	30%	−8
York or draw	70%	74%	−4
York clean sheet	35%	–	–
Port Vale clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.6 9.7 5.3 1 11.9 12.8 6.8 2.5 2 7.9 8.3 4.5 3 3.6 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+York down, Port Vale across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League Two matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

York at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Port Vale away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for York, 1.07 for Port Vale. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

YORK

WLWDDD4–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

PORT VALE

LWLWWD0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
4	Walsall	11	+9	19
5	Cheltenham	12	−1	18
6	York	11	+6	17
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	−4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
11	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
12	Newport County	12	+1	15
13	Tranmere	12	0	15
14	Rochdale	12	−2	15
15	Swindon Town	12	−3	15
16	Bristol Rovers	12	−4	15
17	Grimsby	12	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14
19	Colchester	11	−3	12
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12
21	Oldham	11	−4	11
22	Rotherham	12	−6	11
23	Northampton	10	−2	10
24	Crawley Town	10	−9	5