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York v Northampton

York

1–1Full time

Northampton

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · York`s LNER Community Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

York 1–1 Northampton YORK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said York win~~46%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.804

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.036

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said York win at 46%.
3′Much as we predicted: York was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
3′KICK-OFF York v Northampton
11′Northampton ahead on 10′ through Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–25–55
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' York 0–1 Northampton · Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' York win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Northampton win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was York win 20%)
16′We said York at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–25–56
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' York win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
31′We said York at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 13–26–62
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' josh powell · Northampton
45′SECOND HALF York 0–1 Northampton
49′We said York at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Harry Boyes · York
56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' M. Warhurst · Northampton
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' York · On: Jeff King · Off: Joseph Rabole Felix
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' York · On: jovan malcolm · Off: Joey Grey
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Northampton · On: Max Dyche · Off: Janoi Donacien
63′⚽ GOAL · 10' York 0–1 Northampton · Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh
63′🟨 YELLOW · 40' josh powell · Northampton
63′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Harry Boyes · York
63′🟨 YELLOW · 54' M. Warhurst · Northampton
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' York · On: Jeff King · Off: Joseph Rabole Felix
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' York · On: jovan malcolm · Off: Joey Grey
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Northampton · On: Max Dyche · Off: Janoi Donacien
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Northampton · On: Tyrese Fornah · Off: Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Northampton · On: Nathaniel Opoku · Off: M. Warhurst
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' York · On: Frankie Maguire · Off: Alex Hunt
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' York · On: Jack Hunt · Off: Ryan Fallowfield
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Northampton · On: James Maxwell · Off: josh powell
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Northampton · On: Sam Hoskins · Off: Owen Dale
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' York 1–1 Northampton · Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' York 1–1 Northampton · Ollie Pearce
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Frankie Maguire · York
FTFULL TIME York 1–1 Northampton
FTYork 1–1 Northampton · York win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

York win46%

Draw28%

Northampton win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · York`s LNER Community Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

York

3-4-2-1

1 A. McNally

2 R. Fallowfield

5 Z. Johnson

3 M. Kitching

23 J. Felix

8 A. Hunt

28 O. Banks

12 H. Boyes

7 J. Grey

30 A. Newby

10 O. Pearce

Coach · Scott Lindsey

Substitutes

31 · G. Sykes-Kenworthy

15 · J. King

32 · J. Hunt

6 · A. Palmer

16 · A. Read

11 · F. Maguire

18 · J. Malcolm

Northampton

Formation not confirmed

1 Z. Jeacock

44 J. Donacien

6 E. Moore

5 J. Guthrie

22 J. Powell

16 J. Wormleighton

24 C. Lemonheigh-Evans

8 L. Evans

4 J. O'Brien Whitmarsh

19 O. Dale

9 M. Warhurst

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · J. Dadge

3 · J. Maxwell

35 · M. Dyche

10 · E. List

14 · T. Fornah

17 · N. Opoku

7 · S. Hoskins

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

York

3-4-2-1

1 A. McNally

2 R. Fallowfield

5 Z. Johnson

3 M. Kitching

23 J. Felix

8 A. Hunt

28 O. Banks

12 H. Boyes

7 J. Grey

30 A. Newby

10 O. Pearce

Coach · Scott Lindsey

Substitutes

31 · G. Sykes-Kenworthy

15 · J. King

32 · J. Hunt

6 · A. Palmer

16 · A. Read

11 · F. Maguire

18 · J. Malcolm

Northampton

Formation not confirmed

1 Z. Jeacock

44 J. Donacien

6 E. Moore

5 J. Guthrie

22 J. Powell

16 J. Wormleighton

24 C. Lemonheigh-Evans

8 L. Evans

4 J. O'Brien Whitmarsh

19 O. Dale

9 M. Warhurst

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · J. Dadge

3 · J. Maxwell

35 · M. Dyche

10 · E. List

14 · T. Fornah

17 · N. Opoku

7 · S. Hoskins

Our number · york winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market63%

Us46%

~~Market~~63%

We make York a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · york win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
York win	46%	63%	−17
Draw	28%	22%	+6
Northampton win	26%	15%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	41%	54%	−13
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	76%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	21%	33%	−12
York or draw	74%	85%	−11
York clean sheet	39%	–	–
Northampton clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 10.5 9.4 4.5 1 13.4 12.6 5.9 2 9.1 8.4 4.0 3 4.3 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+York down, Northampton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,887 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

York at home: 3.00 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Northampton away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for York, 0.94 for Northampton. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League Two

YORK

WLDWLW2–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 3–0

NORTHAMPTON

LDDWLL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	9	+3	16
2	Barnet	7	+7	15
3	Crewe	9	+4	15
4	Cheltenham	9	+2	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	0	15
6	York	8	+6	14
7	Walsall	8	+6	14
8	Chesterfield	9	+3	14
9	Grimsby	9	+3	13
10	Gillingham	9	+2	13
11	Rochdale	9	−1	13
12	Tranmere	9	0	11
13	Swindon Town	9	−4	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	−5	11
15	Newport County	9	0	10
16	Accrington ST	9	−1	10
17	Rotherham	9	−1	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	−1	10
19	Colchester	8	−2	10
20	Exeter City	9	−1	9
21	Oldham	8	−4	7
22	Northampton	7	−3	6
23	Port Vale	7	−6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	−7	4