Walsall v Salford City prediction · League Two

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

WalsallDrawSalford City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Walsall 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Walsall are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Walsall 41%, draw 27%, Salford City 32%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Walsall v Salford CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Walsall win41%

Draw27%

Salford City win32%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueBescot Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Walsall

Salford City

6Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · walsall winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market29%

Us41%

~~Market~~29%

We make Walsall a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Walsall v Salford City~~1.37 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 25~~5 v 1

~~The market · Walsall win~~29% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Walsall win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Walsall win	41%	29%	+12
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Salford City win	32%	45%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	46%	55%	−9
Both teams to score	51%	58%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	72%	77%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Walsall or draw	68%	55%	+13
Walsall clean sheet	32%	–	–
Salford City clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.3 9.1 5.4 2.1 1 10.7 12.7 7.3 2.8 2 7.4 8.5 4.9 3 3.4 3.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Walsall down, Salford City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League Two matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Walsall at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Salford City away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Walsall, 1.16 for Salford City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAL 1–0 WAL · WAL 1–0 SAL · WAL 2–2 SAL · SAL 0–2 WAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 12 Sept

WALSALL

DWDDDW0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

SALFORD CITY

WWWWWW1–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
4	Cheltenham	13	0	21
5	Walsall	11	+9	19
6	York	11	+6	17
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	−4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
11	Swindon Town	13	−3	16
12	Bristol Rovers	13	−4	16
13	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
14	Newport County	13	0	15
15	Tranmere	12	0	15
16	Rochdale	12	−2	15
17	Grimsby	12	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14
19	Northampton	11	0	13
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12
21	Colchester	12	−5	12
22	Oldham	11	−4	11
23	Rotherham	12	−6	11
24	Crawley Town	10	−9	5