Walsall v Oldham prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Walsall 3–0 Oldham WALSALL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Walsall win~~42%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.501

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.563

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Walsall win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Walsall 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Walsall v Oldham
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Taione Richard Evumena Sodje · Walsall
21′Taione Richard Evumena Sodje scores for Walsall on 21′. 0–0 · 39–32–29
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Charlie Crew · Walsall
22′We said Walsall at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Walsall 1–0 Oldham · Taione Richard Evumena Sodje (assist Jed ward)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Walsall win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Walsall win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
27′We said Walsall at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Walsall 2–0 Oldham
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Walsall win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
28′Walsall ahead on 26′ through Aaron Pressley. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Walsall win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Lewis Simper · Walsall
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Jamie Robson · Oldham
45′HALF-TIME Walsall 2–0 Oldham
45′SECOND HALF Walsall 2–0 Oldham
49′We said Walsall at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Oldham · On: Mike·Fondop-Talum · Off: Tom Pett
59′Aaron Pressley scores for Walsall on 58′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′We said Walsall at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Matthew Hudson · Oldham
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Walsall 3–0 Oldham · Aaron Pressley (penalty)
60′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Walsall
62′Walsall are down to ten from 61′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Favour fawunmi · Oldham
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Walsall · On: Ryan Leak · Off: Courtney Alphonso Clarke
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Walsall · On: Sven Sprangler · Off: Charlie Crew
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Walsall · On: Mason·Hancock · Off: James Furlong
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Walsall · On: Reece Smith · Off: Aaron Pressley
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Oldham · On: Gus Scott-Morriss · Off: Donervorn Daniels
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Walsall · On: Andrew Dallas · Off: Taione Richard Evumena Sodje
FTFULL TIME Walsall 3–0 Oldham
FTWalsall 3–0 Oldham · Walsall win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Walsall are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Walsall 42%, draw 27%, Oldham 30%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Walsall v OldhamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Walsall win42%

Draw27%

Oldham win30%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBescot Stadium

Line-ups

Walsall

4-2-3-1

Oldham

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Walsall

Oldham

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Walsall	10	+6	16
19	Oldham	10	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Walsall

4-2-3-1

1 J. Ward

22 E. Ahui

25 D. Skura

4 J. Connolly

29 J. Furlong

8 C. Crew

15 Isaac Moore

10 L. Simper

7 Taione Richard Evumena Sodje

17 Courtney Clarke

19 A. Pressley

Coach · Lee Grant

Substitutes

37 · A. Adomah

9 · A. Dallas

3 · M. Hancock

26 · R. Leak

11 · R. Smith

6 · S. Sprangler

31 · Tom Wooster

Oldham

4-2-3-1

1 M. Hudson

16 W. Sutton

5 D. Daniels

6 E. Monthe

3 J. Robson

8 O. Norburn

7 K. Appiah-Forson

15 K. Drummond

4 T. Pett

17 F. Fawunmi

10 C. Kavanagh

Coach · M. Mellon

Substitutes

9 · M. Fondop-Talum

27 · O. Hammond

22 · Wilson Wilson

24 · L. Temple

2 · G. Scott-Morriss

26 · Kai Payne

30 · Thomas Daniel Hill

Our number · walsall winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

42% The market39%

Us42%

~~Market~~39%

We make Walsall a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Walsall v Oldham~~1.35 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D5 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~5 v 19

~~The market · Walsall win~~39% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Walsall win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Walsall win	42%	39%	+3
Draw	27%	27%	0
Oldham win	30%	34%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	44%	52%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	56%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−8
Walsall or draw	70%	66%	+4
Walsall clean sheet	34%	–	–
Oldham clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.0 9.4 5.3 1 11.5 12.8 6.9 2.6 2 7.8 8.5 4.7 3 3.5 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Walsall down, Oldham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Walsall at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Oldham away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Walsall, 1.10 for Oldham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WAL 1–2 OLD · OLD 0–1 WAL · WAL 2–1 OLD · OLD 1–3 WAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

WALSALL

DDWDDD0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

OLDHAM

LLLLDW0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	11	+6	22
2	Barnet	9	+10	21
3	Crewe	11	+6	21
4	York	10	+6	16
5	Walsall	10	+6	16
6	Gillingham	11	+3	16
7	Chesterfield	11	+2	15
8	Cheltenham	11	−3	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	−3	15
10	Accrington ST	11	+1	14
11	Newport County	11	+1	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	+1	14
13	Rochdale	11	−2	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	−5	14
15	Grimsby	11	0	13
16	Exeter City	11	0	13
17	Tranmere	11	−1	12
18	Swindon Town	11	−5	12
19	Oldham	10	−1	11
20	Colchester	10	−3	11
21	Port Vale	9	−4	11
22	Northampton	9	−1	10
23	Rotherham	11	−6	10
24	Crawley Town	9	−8	5