Home › Football › League Two › Tranmere v Rochdale

Tranmere v Rochdale

Tranmere

1–1Full time

Rochdale

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Prenton Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Tranmere 1–1 Rochdale TRANMERE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tranmere win~~40%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.813

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tranmere win at 40%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Tranmere 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
2′KICK-OFF Tranmere v Rochdale
15′15′ and it is 1–0: Tom Conlon on the scoresheet for Tranmere. 1–0 · 68–20–12
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Tranmere 1–0 Rochdale · Tom Conlon
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Tranmere win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
20′We said Tranmere at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
36′We said Tranmere at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Tranmere win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
46′SECOND HALF Tranmere 1–0 Rochdale
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Tranmere 1–0 Rochdale · Dajaune Brown
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Tranmere 1–1 Rochdale · Dajaune Brown
61′⚽ GOAL · 15' Tranmere 1–1 Rochdale · Tom Conlon (assist Will Vaulks)
61′⚽ GOAL · 57' Tranmere 1–1 Rochdale · Dajaune Brown (assist Charlie Tasker)
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tranmere · On: Charlie Veevers · Off: David Kamara
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Rochdale · On: Emmanuel Dieseruvwe · Off: Cian Hayes
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tranmere · On: Joe Ironside · Off: dylan jones
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Rochdale · On: Edward Francis · Off: K. Taylor
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Olutobi Adebayo-Rowling · Rochdale
FTFULL TIME Tranmere 1–1 Rochdale
FTTranmere 1–1 Rochdale · Tranmere win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tranmere win40%

Draw26%

Rochdale win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Prenton Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tranmere

4-2-3-1

12 H. Male

2 J. Senior

5 N. Smith

30 G. Nevett

3 J. Slater

6 W. Vaulks

11 T. Conlon

24 D. Kamara

10 T. Ince

7 C. Whitaker

29 D. Jones

Coach · Darrell Clarke

Substitutes

1 · L. McGee

16 · B. Faulkner

22 · L. O'Connor

44 · R. Watson

20 · C. Veevers

9 · J. Ironside

19 · C. Baker-Richardson

Rochdale

4-1-4-1

1 N. Ramming

13 T. Adebayo-Rowling

44 A. Flint

3 K. Wilson

2 C. Tasker

8 H. Gilmour

7 C. Hayes

21 K. Taylor

17 B. Adeeko

45 G. Middleton

39 D. Brown

Coach · Ian Watson

Substitutes

20 · S. Waller

26 · S. Sherring

33 · S. Beckwith

11 · Z. Silcott-Duberry

14 · E. Francis

19 · L. Hannant

9 · E. Dieseruvwe

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tranmere

4-2-3-1

12 H. Male

2 J. Senior

5 N. Smith

30 G. Nevett

3 J. Slater

6 W. Vaulks

11 T. Conlon

24 D. Kamara

10 T. Ince

7 C. Whitaker

29 D. Jones

Coach · Darrell Clarke

Substitutes

1 · L. McGee

16 · B. Faulkner

22 · L. O'Connor

44 · R. Watson

20 · C. Veevers

9 · J. Ironside

19 · C. Baker-Richardson

Rochdale

4-1-4-1

1 N. Ramming

13 T. Adebayo-Rowling

44 A. Flint

3 K. Wilson

2 C. Tasker

8 H. Gilmour

7 C. Hayes

21 K. Taylor

17 B. Adeeko

45 G. Middleton

39 D. Brown

Coach · Ian Watson

Substitutes

20 · S. Waller

26 · S. Sherring

33 · S. Beckwith

11 · Z. Silcott-Duberry

14 · E. Francis

19 · L. Hannant

9 · E. Dieseruvwe

Our number · tranmere winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market48%

Us40%

~~Market~~48%

We make Tranmere a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tranmere win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tranmere win	40%	48%	−8
Draw	26%	27%	0
Rochdale win	34%	25%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	73%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Tranmere or draw	66%	75%	−8
Tranmere clean sheet	30%	–	–
Rochdale clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.9 9.1 5.6 2.3 1 10.1 12.4 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.3 5.1 2.1 3 3.2 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tranmere down, Rochdale across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,887 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tranmere at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rochdale away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Tranmere, 1.23 for Rochdale. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ROC 2–2 TRA · TRA 1–1 ROC · TRA 2–0 ROC · ROC 1–0 TRA

Form · last six in League Two

TRANMERE

DWLDDL2–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–4

ROCHDALE

WLDWWW3–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	9	+3	16
2	Barnet	7	+7	15
3	Crewe	9	+4	15
4	Cheltenham	9	+2	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	0	15
6	York	8	+6	14
7	Walsall	8	+6	14
8	Chesterfield	9	+3	14
9	Grimsby	9	+3	13
10	Gillingham	9	+2	13
11	Rochdale	9	−1	13
12	Tranmere	9	0	11
13	Swindon Town	9	−4	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	−5	11
15	Newport County	9	0	10
16	Accrington ST	9	−1	10
17	Rotherham	9	−1	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	−1	10
19	Colchester	8	−2	10
20	Exeter City	9	−1	9
21	Oldham	8	−4	7
22	Northampton	7	−3	6
23	Port Vale	7	−6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	−7	4