Tranmere v Barnet prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Tranmere 1–2 Barnet BARNET WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barnet win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.407

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.437

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barnet win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Barnet was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 28–24–48
1′KICK-OFF Tranmere v Barnet
8′Much as we predicted: Barnet was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
22′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Zac Williams · Barnet
23′Tranmere ahead on 22′ through Will Vaulks. 1–0. 1–0 · 56–24–20
23′We said Barnet at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 56–24–20
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Tranmere 1–0 Barnet · Will Vaulks
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Barnet win: 48% at kick-off, 20% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Tranmere win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Barnet win 20%)
26′We said Barnet at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–24–19
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Barnet win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 57–24–18
42′We said Barnet at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
45′HALF-TIME Tranmere 1–0 Barnet
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Barnet · On: Romoney Crichlow-Noble · Off: Zac Williams
46′SECOND HALF Tranmere 1–0 Barnet
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Barnet · On: Nnamdi Ofoborh · Off: Tom Knowles
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Joel Senior · Tranmere
57′Kabongo Tshimanga scores for Barnet on 55′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–44–33
57′We said Barnet at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 22–44–33
57′⚽ GOAL · 55' Tranmere 1–1 Barnet · Kabongo Tshimanga
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Barnet win: 48% at kick-off, 33% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Tranmere win 22%)
64′We said Barnet at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 20–51–29
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Barnet win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tranmere · On: Ryan Watson · Off: dylan jones
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Idris Kanu · Barnet
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Will Vaulks · Tranmere
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Tranmere · On: David Kamara · Off: Charlie Jay Whitaker
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Tranmere · On: B. Faulkner · Off: Tom Conlon
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Barnet · On: Damola Ajayi · Off: Idris Kanu
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Barnet win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
85′We said Barnet at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Barnet · On: Myles Kenlock · Off: Nikola Tavares
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Barnet win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
87′We published Barnet at 48%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–2 · 0–5–94
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Tranmere 1–2 Barnet
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Barnet win: 48% at kick-off, 94% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Barnet win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 5%)
88′87′: Kabongo Tshimanga on the scoresheet for Barnet, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
89′We published Barnet at 48%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–2 · 0–4–96
89′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–4–96
90′Full time, 1–2. We called Barnet at 48% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
93′A red card for Tranmere on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 0–2–98
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Barnet win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Joel Senior · Tranmere
103′SUBSTITUTION · 90+13' Barnet · On: Jake Reeves · Off: Romoney Crichlow-Noble
FTFULL TIME Tranmere 1–2 Barnet
FTTranmere 1–2 Barnet · Barnet win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barnet are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tranmere 28%, draw 24%, Barnet 48%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Tranmere v BarnetBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tranmere win28%

Draw24%

Barnet win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePrenton Park

Line-ups

Tranmere

4-2-3-1

Barnet

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tranmere

Barnet

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Barnet	8	+9	18
13	Tranmere	10	0	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tranmere

4-2-3-1

12 H. Male

2 J. Senior

5 N. Smith

30 G. Nevett

3 J. Slater

6 W. Vaulks

11 T. Conlon

29 D. Jones

10 T. Ince

7 C. Whitaker

9 J. Ironside

Coach · Darrell Clarke

Substitutes

1 · L. McGee

16 · B. Faulkner

22 · L. O'Connor

14 · O. Scott

44 · R. Watson

20 · C. Veevers

24 · D. Kamara

Barnet

4-2-3-1

13 M. Cox

5 A. Senior

4 D. Collinge

25 N. Tavares

6 Z. Williams

22 O. Gallagher

14 B. Comley

7 T. Knowles

8 C. Lakin

11 I. Kanu

20 K. Tshimanga

Coach · Dean Brennan

Substitutes

36 · A. Haralambous

18 · K. Smith

30 · M. Kenlock

3 · R. Crichlow

23 · J. Reeves

10 · N. Ofoborh

17 · D. Ajayi

Our number · barnet winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Barnet a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tranmere v Barnet~~1.25 – 1.71

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 18~~13 v 2

~~The market · Barnet win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barnet win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tranmere win	28%	28%	0
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Barnet win	48%	46%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
Tranmere or draw	52%	54%	−2
Tranmere clean sheet	19%	–	–
Barnet clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 8.8 7.6 4.3 1 6.5 11.1 9.3 5.3 2.3 2 4.1 6.8 5.8 3.3 3 2.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tranmere down, Barnet across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tranmere at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Barnet away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Tranmere, 1.71 for Barnet. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAR 1–0 TRA · TRA 0–2 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 29 Aug

TRANMERE

WLDDLD2–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–1

BARNET

DDDWWW2–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	10	+5	19
2	Barnet	8	+9	18
3	Crewe	10	+5	18
4	Gillingham	10	+5	16
5	York	9	+6	15
6	Walsall	9	+6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	+3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	−2	15
10	Rochdale	10	−1	14
11	Grimsby	10	+2	13
12	Newport County	10	+1	13
13	Tranmere	10	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	−1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	−1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	−5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	−6	11
19	Colchester	9	−3	10
20	Rotherham	10	−4	10
21	Oldham	9	−4	8
22	Port Vale	8	−5	8
23	Northampton	8	−3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	−7	5