Home › Football › League Two › Swindon Town v Walsall
Back

Swindon Town v Walsall
Swindon Town
WalsallLeague Two · SAT 17 OCT · County Ground
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Swindon Town win at 41%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Swindon Town 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
- 1′KICK-OFF Swindon Town v Walsall
- 5′A goal for Swindon Town on 4′. 0–0 · 40–27–33
- 6′Aaron Drinan scores for Swindon Town on 5′. 0–0 · 40–27–33
- 8′5′: Aaron Drinan on the scoresheet for Swindon Town, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–19–14
- 8′We said Swindon Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–19–14
- 8′⚽ GOAL · 5' Swindon Town 1–0 Walsall · Aaron Drinan (assist Stephan Negru)
- 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Swindon Town win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–10
- 32′We said Swindon Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Swindon Town win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Swindon Town 1–0 Walsall
- 45′SECOND HALF Swindon Town 1–0 Walsall
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Walsall · On: Elicha Ahui · Off: Ryan Leak
- 55′We said Swindon Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
- 56′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–46–25
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Swindon Town 1–1 Walsall
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Swindon Town win: 41% at kick-off, 29% now
- 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Swindon Town win 29%)
- 57′Walsall level it on 55′ through Taione Richard Evumena Sodje. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–47–25
- 57′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–47–25
- 59′14 shots for Walsall, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 28–48–24
- 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' L. Grant · Walsall
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Swindon Town · On: Louis Millard · Off: antwoine hackford
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Swindon Town · On: Matthew Virtue-Thick · Off: Joseph Hungbo
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Swindon Town · On: Joe Snowdon · Off: Ollie Clarke
- 66′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Walsall · On: Charlie Crew · Off: Isaac Moore
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Swindon Town win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
- 73′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–64–17
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Swindon Town · On: Jaylan Pearman · Off: Anthony Munda
- 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' James Ball · Swindon Town
- 79′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Swindon Town · On: Kaelan Majekodunmi · Off: James Ball
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Swindon Town win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Walsall · On: Lewis Simper · Off: Courtney Alphonso Clarke
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Walsall · On: James Furlong · Off: Mason·Hancock
- 84′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–84–7
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Walsall · On: Andrew Dallas · Off: Taione Richard Evumena Sodje
- 91′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- FTFULL TIME Swindon Town 1–1 Walsall
- FTSwindon Town 1–1 Walsall · Swindon Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassSwindon Town are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Swindon Town 41%, draw 26%, Walsall 33%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Swindon Town win41%
Walsall win33%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueCounty Ground
Match timeline
All events
Swindon TownMIN
WalsallEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Swindon Town
3-4-1-2
Walsall
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Swindon Town
Walsall
Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two
Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Swindon Town
3-4-1-2
1 C. Ripley
6 J. Ball
5 S. Negru
8 O. Clarke
2 M. Clark
25 J. Thomson
27 A. Munda
34 B. Kirkman
15 J. Hungbo
29 A. Hackford
23 A. Drinan
Coach · Ian Holloway
Substitutes
12 · L. Ward
21 · K. Majekodunmi
24 · M. Virtue
7 · T. Nichols
19 · J. Snowdon
22 · J. Pearman
39 · L. Millard
Walsall
4-2-3-1
1 J. Ward
25 D. Skura
4 J. Connolly
26 R. Leak
3 M. Hancock
6 S. Sprangler
15 I. Moore
17 C. Clarke
7 T. Sodje
11 R. Smith
19 A. Pressley
Coach · Lee Grant
Substitutes
31 · T. Wooster
22 · E. Ahui
29 · J. Furlong
8 · C. Crew
10 · L. Simper
37 · A. Adomah
9 · A. Dallas
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Swindon Town
3-4-1-2
1 C. Ripley
6 J. Ball
5 S. Negru
8 O. Clarke
2 M. Clark
25 J. Thomson
27 A. Munda
34 B. Kirkman
15 J. Hungbo
29 A. Hackford
23 A. Drinan
Coach · Ian Holloway
Substitutes
12 · L. Ward
21 · K. Majekodunmi
24 · M. Virtue
7 · T. Nichols
19 · J. Snowdon
22 · J. Pearman
39 · L. Millard
Walsall
4-2-3-1
1 J. Ward
25 D. Skura
4 J. Connolly
26 R. Leak
3 M. Hancock
6 S. Sprangler
15 I. Moore
17 C. Clarke
7 T. Sodje
11 R. Smith
19 A. Pressley
Coach · Lee Grant
Substitutes
31 · T. Wooster
22 · E. Ahui
29 · J. Furlong
8 · C. Crew
10 · L. Simper
37 · A. Adomah
9 · A. Dallas
We make Swindon Town a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town win | 41% | 35% | +6 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 0 |
| Walsall win | 33% | 39% | −6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 36% | −7 |
| Swindon Town or draw | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Swindon Town clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Walsall clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 Sept
SWINDON TOWN
WALSALL
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | −2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | −1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | −1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | −1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | −5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | −6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | −3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | −4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | −4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | −5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | −7 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.

Salford City
Barnet
Crewe
Gillingham
York
Chesterfield
Cheltenham
Bristol Rovers
Rochdale
Grimsby
Newport County
Tranmere
Exeter City
Accrington ST
Fleetwood Town
Shrewsbury
Colchester
Rotherham
Oldham
Port Vale
Northampton
Crawley Town