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Model 1.2

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Swindon Town v Walsall

Swindon Town
1–1Full time
Walsall

League Two · SAT 17 OCT · County Ground

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Swindon Town 1–1 Walsall SWINDON TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Swindon Town win41%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.830
The market’s Brier score0.814

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Swindon Town win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Swindon Town 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Swindon Town v Walsall
  4. 5′A goal for Swindon Town on 4′. 0–0 · 40–27–33
  5. 6′Aaron Drinan scores for Swindon Town on 5′. 0–0 · 40–27–33
  6. 8′5′: Aaron Drinan on the scoresheet for Swindon Town, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–19–14
  7. 8′We said Swindon Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–19–14
  8. 8′⚽ GOAL · 5' Swindon Town 1–0 Walsall · Aaron Drinan (assist Stephan Negru)
  9. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Swindon Town win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–10
  11. 32′We said Swindon Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
  12. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Swindon Town win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Swindon Town 1–0 Walsall
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Swindon Town 1–0 Walsall
  15. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Walsall · On: Elicha Ahui · Off: Ryan Leak
  16. 55′We said Swindon Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
  17. 56′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–46–25
  18. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Swindon Town 1–1 Walsall
  19. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Swindon Town win: 41% at kick-off, 29% now
  20. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Swindon Town win 29%)
  21. 57′Walsall level it on 55′ through Taione Richard Evumena Sodje. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–47–25
  22. 57′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–47–25
  23. 59′14 shots for Walsall, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 28–48–24
  24. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' L. Grant · Walsall
  25. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Swindon Town · On: Louis Millard · Off: antwoine hackford
  26. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Swindon Town · On: Matthew Virtue-Thick · Off: Joseph Hungbo
  27. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Swindon Town · On: Joe Snowdon · Off: Ollie Clarke
  28. 66′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
  29. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Walsall · On: Charlie Crew · Off: Isaac Moore
  30. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Swindon Town win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
  31. 73′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–64–17
  32. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Swindon Town · On: Jaylan Pearman · Off: Anthony Munda
  33. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' James Ball · Swindon Town
  34. 79′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
  35. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Swindon Town · On: Kaelan Majekodunmi · Off: James Ball
  36. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Swindon Town win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Walsall · On: Lewis Simper · Off: Courtney Alphonso Clarke
  38. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Walsall · On: James Furlong · Off: Mason·Hancock
  39. 84′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–84–7
  40. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Walsall · On: Andrew Dallas · Off: Taione Richard Evumena Sodje
  41. 91′We said Swindon Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  42. FTFULL TIME Swindon Town 1–1 Walsall
  43. FTSwindon Town 1–1 Walsall · Swindon Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Swindon Town are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Swindon Town 41%, draw 26%, Walsall 33%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Swindon Town v WalsallBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Swindon Town win41%
Draw26%
Walsall win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCounty Ground

Line-ups

Swindon Town

3-4-1-2

Walsall

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Swindon Town

Walsall

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two

Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Walsall9+615
17Swindon Town10−511

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Swindon Town

3-4-1-2

1 C. Ripley

6 J. Ball

5 S. Negru

8 O. Clarke

2 M. Clark

25 J. Thomson

27 A. Munda

34 B. Kirkman

15 J. Hungbo

29 A. Hackford

23 A. Drinan

Coach · Ian Holloway

Substitutes

12 · L. Ward

21 · K. Majekodunmi

24 · M. Virtue

7 · T. Nichols

19 · J. Snowdon

22 · J. Pearman

39 · L. Millard

Walsall

4-2-3-1

1 J. Ward

25 D. Skura

4 J. Connolly

26 R. Leak

3 M. Hancock

6 S. Sprangler

15 I. Moore

17 C. Clarke

7 T. Sodje

11 R. Smith

19 A. Pressley

Coach · Lee Grant

Substitutes

31 · T. Wooster

22 · E. Ahui

29 · J. Furlong

8 · C. Crew

10 · L. Simper

37 · A. Adomah

9 · A. Dallas

Our number · swindon town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
41% The market35%
Us41%
Market35%

We make Swindon Town a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Swindon Town v Walsall1.45 – 1.28
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W1 D5 L0
Table places · points 11 v 1517 v 6
The market · Swindon Town win35% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 03:5917 OCT 14:00
Our probability · Swindon Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Swindon Town win41%35%+6
Draw26%26%0
Walsall win33%39%−6
Over 2.5 goals51%56%−5
Both teams to score55%60%−5
Over 1.5 goals76%78%−2
Over 3.5 goals29%36%−7
Swindon Town or draw67%61%+6
Swindon Town clean sheet28%––
Walsall clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 6.8 8.3 5.4 2.3 1 9.4 12.1 7.7 3.3 2 6.8 8.6 5.5 2.4 3 3.3 4.2 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Swindon Town down, Walsall across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsSWI 2–1 WAL · WAL 2–1 SWI · WAL 0–1 SWI · SWI 0–4 WAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 Sept

SWINDON TOWN

WLLDLL3–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

WALSALL

DDDWDD2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Salford City10+519
2Barnet8+918
3Crewe10+518
4Gillingham10+516
5York9+615
6Walsall9+615
7Chesterfield10+315
8Cheltenham10015
9Bristol Rovers10−215
10Rochdale10−114
11Grimsby10+213
12Newport County10+113
13Tranmere10012
14Exeter City10012
15Accrington ST10−111
16Fleetwood Town10−111
17Swindon Town10−511
18Shrewsbury10−611
19Colchester9−310
20Rotherham10−410
21Oldham9−48
22Port Vale8−58
23Northampton8−37
24Crawley Town8−75

The competition's standings before kick-off.