Shrewsbury v Gillingham prediction · League Two

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ShrewsburyDrawGillingham

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Shrewsbury 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shrewsbury are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shrewsbury 41%, draw 28%, Gillingham 31%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Shrewsbury v GillinghamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Shrewsbury win41%

Draw28%

Gillingham win31%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueThe Croud Meadow

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shrewsbury

Gillingham

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Shrewsbury	13	−4	18
12	Gillingham	13	0	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shrewsbury winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Shrewsbury a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shrewsbury v Gillingham~~1.33 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 26 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 17~~10 v 12

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shrewsbury win	41%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Gillingham win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Shrewsbury or draw	69%	–	–
Shrewsbury clean sheet	33%	–	–
Gillingham clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.2 9.6 5.4 2.0 1 11.5 12.9 7.0 2.6 2 7.7 8.4 4.6 3 3.4 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shrewsbury down, Gillingham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,934 League Two matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shrewsbury at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Gillingham away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Shrewsbury, 1.11 for Gillingham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GIL 1–0 SHR · SHR 3–3 GIL · GIL 0–0 SHR · SHR 2–1 GIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 26 Sept

SHREWSBURY

DWLWWD2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 3–3

GILLINGHAM

LDWLDL0–3 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	11	+8	22
3	Cheltenham	13	0	21
4	Crewe	13	0	21
5	York	12	+8	20
6	Walsall	11	+9	19
7	Chesterfield	13	+6	19
8	Exeter City	13	+3	19
9	Accrington ST	13	+6	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	−4	18
11	Grimsby	13	+3	17
12	Gillingham	13	0	17
13	Tranmere	13	0	16
14	Swindon Town	13	−3	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	−4	16
16	Newport County	13	0	15
17	Rochdale	13	−7	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	−2	14
19	Northampton	11	0	13
20	Oldham	12	−4	12
21	Colchester	12	−5	12
22	Rotherham	13	−6	12
23	Port Vale	11	−6	12
24	Crawley Town	11	−9	6