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Shrewsbury v Exeter City

Shrewsbury

0–1Full time

Exeter City

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · New Meadow

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Shrewsbury 0–1 Exeter City EXETER CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Exeter City win~~38%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.581

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.810

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Exeter City win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Exeter City 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 31–31–38
2′KICK-OFF Shrewsbury v Exeter City
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Tom Sang · Shrewsbury
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Exeter City win 33%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jake Doyle Hayes · Exeter City
46′HALF-TIME Shrewsbury 0–0 Exeter City
47′SECOND HALF Shrewsbury 0–0 Exeter City
49′SECOND HALF Shrewsbury 0–0 Exeter City
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Exeter City win: 38% at kick-off, 27% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Tom Sang · Shrewsbury
62′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jake Doyle Hayes · Exeter City
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Luca Hoole · Shrewsbury
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Shrewsbury · On: Arkelle Jude-Boyd · Off: Luca Hoole
67′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Exeter City · On: Ethan Sutherland · Off: Anthony Scully
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Shrewsbury · On: Josh Davison · Off: Isaac Fletcher
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Shrewsbury · On: will gray · Off: Tom Sang
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' will gray · Shrewsbury
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Taylor Perry · Exeter City
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Exeter City · On: Sonny Cox · Off: Taylor Perry
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Shrewsbury 0–1 Exeter City
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Shrewsbury 0–1 Exeter City · Sonny Cox
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Shrewsbury · On: Joseph Gbode · Off: Kevin Berkoe
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' J. Turner-Cook · Shrewsbury
94′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Exeter City · On: Vincent Harper · Off: George Birch
94′SUBSTITUTION · 96' Exeter City · On: Edward James · Off: Sonny Cox Corrected
FTFULL TIME Shrewsbury 0–1 Exeter City
FTShrewsbury 0–1 Exeter City · Exeter City win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Shrewsbury win31%

Draw31%

Exeter City win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · New Meadow

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Shrewsbury

3-4-1-2

1 W. Brook

6 S. Stubbs

5 W. Boyle

3 J. Ruffels

2 L. Hoole

10 T. Sang

7 J. Turner-Cooke

11 K. Berkoe

18 K. McMahon-Brown

9 G. Lloyd

8 I. Fletcher

Coach · Gavin Cowan

Substitutes

32 · C. Gregory

17 · A. Jude-Boyd

24 · L. Sousa

23 · I. Lee

21 · W. Gray

13 · J. Davison

27 · J. Gbode

Exeter City

4-2-3-1

1 J. Bycroft

2 L. Samuel

6 J. Taylor

5 J. Fitzwater

3 L. Woodhouse

31 J. Doyle-Hayes

16 C. Cummins

25 A. Scully

8 T. Perry

20 G. Birch

10 J. Gordon

Coach · Matt Taylor

Substitutes

22 · F. Phillips

40 · E. James

24 · V. Harper

23 · E. Sutherland

18 · L. Oakes

14 · H. Kite

19 · S. Cox

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shrewsbury

3-4-1-2

1 W. Brook

6 S. Stubbs

5 W. Boyle

3 J. Ruffels

2 L. Hoole

10 T. Sang

7 J. Turner-Cooke

11 K. Berkoe

18 K. McMahon-Brown

9 G. Lloyd

8 I. Fletcher

Coach · Gavin Cowan

Substitutes

32 · C. Gregory

17 · A. Jude-Boyd

24 · L. Sousa

23 · I. Lee

21 · W. Gray

13 · J. Davison

27 · J. Gbode

Exeter City

4-2-3-1

1 J. Bycroft

2 L. Samuel

6 J. Taylor

5 J. Fitzwater

3 L. Woodhouse

31 J. Doyle-Hayes

16 C. Cummins

25 A. Scully

8 T. Perry

20 G. Birch

10 J. Gordon

Coach · Matt Taylor

Substitutes

22 · F. Phillips

40 · E. James

24 · V. Harper

23 · E. Sutherland

18 · L. Oakes

14 · H. Kite

19 · S. Cox

Our number · exeter city winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

38% The market27%

Us38%

~~Market~~27%

We make Exeter City a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · exeter city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 27% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shrewsbury win	31%	44%	−13
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Exeter City win	38%	27%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	32%	44%	−12
Both teams to score	39%	50%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	59%	67%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	14%	23%	−9
Shrewsbury or draw	62%	73%	−11
Shrewsbury clean sheet	35%	–	–
Exeter City clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.4%

0123450 14.3 14.4 7.7 2.8 1 12.6 13.3 6.9 2.5 2 5.9 6.1 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shrewsbury down, Exeter City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,887 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Shrewsbury at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Exeter City away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Shrewsbury, 1.06 for Exeter City. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League Two

SHREWSBURY

LLWDDW0–3 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

EXETER CITY

DDLDLW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	9	+3	16
2	Barnet	7	+7	15
3	Crewe	9	+4	15
4	Cheltenham	9	+2	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	0	15
6	York	8	+6	14
7	Walsall	8	+6	14
8	Chesterfield	9	+3	14
9	Grimsby	9	+3	13
10	Gillingham	9	+2	13
11	Rochdale	9	−1	13
12	Tranmere	9	0	11
13	Swindon Town	9	−4	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	−5	11
15	Newport County	9	0	10
16	Accrington ST	9	−1	10
17	Rotherham	9	−1	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	−1	10
19	Colchester	8	−2	10
20	Exeter City	9	−1	9
21	Oldham	8	−4	7
22	Northampton	7	−3	6
23	Port Vale	7	−6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	−7	4