Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Shrewsbury 1–0 Bristol Rovers BRISTOL ROVERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bristol Rovers win~~38%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.625

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.742

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bristol Rovers win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bristol Rovers was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–27–38
1′KICK-OFF Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Shaqai Forde · Bristol Rovers
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Josh Ruffels · Shrewsbury
28′7 shots for Shrewsbury, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 33–33–34
31′Shrewsbury have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 32–34–34
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Steve Evans · Bristol Rovers
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Bristol Rovers win 32%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' George Lloyd · Shrewsbury
45′HALF-TIME Shrewsbury 0–0 Bristol Rovers
45′SECOND HALF Shrewsbury 0–0 Bristol Rovers
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Bristol Rovers win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 26–46–27
58′We said Bristol Rovers at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 25–49–26
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Bristol Rovers · On: Joe Quigley · Off: Bobby Kamwa Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Bristol Rovers · On: Arvin Appiah · Off: Richard Smallwood Corrected
62′We said Bristol Rovers at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–52–24
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Keenan Gough · Bristol Rovers
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Bristol Rovers · On: Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny · Off: Clinton Mola
71′We said Bristol Rovers at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Bristol Rovers win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bristol Rovers · On: Jack Sparkes · Off: Ciaran Kelly
77′We said Bristol Rovers at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Shrewsbury 1–0 Bristol Rovers
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Bristol Rovers win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Shrewsbury win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
78′George Lloyd scores for Shrewsbury on 77′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–13–1
81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Shrewsbury
82′A red card for Shrewsbury on 80′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Shrewsbury · On: Isaac Fletcher · Off: Josh Davison
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Shrewsbury · On: will gray · Off: Kian McMahon-Brown
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Ben Purrington · Bristol Rovers
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Bristol Rovers at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
94′🟥 RED CARD · 90+4' Shrewsbury
95′Shrewsbury are down to nine from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Shrewsbury 1–0 Bristol Rovers
FTShrewsbury 1–0 Bristol Rovers · Bristol Rovers win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bristol Rovers just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Shrewsbury 36%, draw 27%, Bristol Rovers 38%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Shrewsbury v Bristol RoversBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Shrewsbury win36%

Draw27%

Bristol Rovers win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueNew Meadow

Line-ups

Shrewsbury

3-4-1-2

Bristol Rovers

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shrewsbury

Bristol Rovers

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Bristol Rovers	10	−2	15
18	Shrewsbury	10	−6	11

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Top 10 most valuable Bristol Rovers players right nowFootball League World · 16 Oct 19:15 · Bristol Rovers

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shrewsbury

3-4-1-2

1 W. Brook

6 S. Stubbs

5 W. Boyle

3 J. Ruffels

2 L. Hoole

10 T. Sang

7 J. Turner-Cooke

11 K. Berkoe

18 K. McMahon-Brown

9 G. Lloyd

13 J. Davison

Coach · Gavin Cowan

Substitutes

32 · C. Gregory

17 · A. Jude-Boyd

24 · L. Sousa

23 · I. Lee

8 · I. Fletcher

20 · M. Golding

21 · W. Gray

Bristol Rovers

4-2-3-1

1 B. Young

2 T. James

4 K. Balmer

17 C. Kelly

14 B. Purrington

21 R. Smallwood

6 C. Mola

7 S. Forde

22 K. Gough

10 B. Kamwa

29 F. Cavegn

Coach · Steve Evans

Substitutes

32 · C. Binns

3 · J. Sparkes

28 · A. Appiah

8 · R. Russell-Denny

27 · P. Sanyaolu

19 · E. Harrison

9 · J. Quigley

Our number · bristol rovers winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Bristol Rovers a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers~~1.28 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 15~~18 v 9

~~The market · Bristol Rovers win~~41% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bristol Rovers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shrewsbury win	36%	30%	+6
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Bristol Rovers win	38%	41%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	45%	+3
Both teams to score	52%	51%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	70%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	25%	+1
Shrewsbury or draw	62%	59%	+3
Shrewsbury clean sheet	27%	–	–
Bristol Rovers clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.8 9.8 6.5 2.9 1 9.5 12.5 8.1 3.6 2 6.1 7.9 5.2 2.3 3 2.6 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shrewsbury down, Bristol Rovers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shrewsbury at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bristol Rovers away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Shrewsbury, 1.32 for Bristol Rovers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BRI 1–0 SHR · SHR 0–3 BRI · SHR 0–0 BRI · BRI 1–0 SHR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

SHREWSBURY

LWDDWL0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

BRISTOL ROVERS

WLLWLL1–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	10	+5	19
2	Barnet	8	+9	18
3	Crewe	10	+5	18
4	Gillingham	10	+5	16
5	York	9	+6	15
6	Walsall	9	+6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	+3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	−2	15
10	Rochdale	10	−1	14
11	Grimsby	10	+2	13
12	Newport County	10	+1	13
13	Tranmere	10	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	−1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	−1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	−5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	−6	11
19	Colchester	9	−3	10
20	Rotherham	10	−4	10
21	Oldham	9	−4	8
22	Port Vale	8	−5	8
23	Northampton	8	−3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	−7	5