Salford City v Crawley Town prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Salford City 2–1 Crawley Town SALFORD CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Salford City win~~55%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.304

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.149

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Salford City win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Salford City 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
1′KICK-OFF Salford City v Crawley Town
7′Little has changed for our model: Salford City 55% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
18′Salford City find the net on 17′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
18′We said Salford City at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Salford City 1–0 Crawley Town
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Salford City win: 55% at kick-off, 79% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
35′We said Salford City at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
45′HALF-TIME Salford City 1–0 Crawley Town
45′SECOND HALF Salford City 1–0 Crawley Town
50′We said Salford City at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Salford City 2–0 Crawley Town
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Salford City win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
51′Macaulay Langstaff scores for Salford City on 50′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
60′59′: Dylan Morgan on the scoresheet for Crawley Town, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–3
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Salford City 2–1 Crawley Town · Dylan Morgan
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Salford City win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
61′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–14–2
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Crawley Town · On: Pele Arganese-McDermott · Off: Priestley Farquharson
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Crawley Town · On: Kellan Gordon · Off: Lewis Richards
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Crawley Town · On: Osman kamara · Off: Gianmarco biase di
66′We said Salford City at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Salford City · On: Luke Garbutt · Off: Abraham Odoh
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Salford City · On: Brendan Sarpeng-Wiredu · Off: Matt·Butcher
77′We said Salford City at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Crawley Town · On: Jonathan Russell · Off: Stephen·Duke-Mckenna
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Crawley Town · On: Louie Watson · Off: Kai Jennings
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Salford City · On: Ryan Graydon · Off: Kallum Cesay
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Salford City win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Salford City · On: Daniel Udoh · Off: Jorge Grant
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Salford City · On: Nathan Asiimwe · Off: Luke Molyneux
90′2–1 at the end. Our 55% on Salford City comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Salford City 2–1 Crawley Town
FTSalford City 2–1 Crawley Town · Salford City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Salford City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salford City 55%, draw 24%, Crawley Town 21%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Salford City v Crawley TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Salford City win55%

Draw24%

Crawley Town win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMoor Lane

Line-ups

Salford City

5-3-2

Crawley Town

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salford City

Crawley Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Salford City

5-3-2

1 W. Norris

43 L. Molyneux

4 W. Aimson

17 D. Scarr

24 T. Allen

14 A. Odoh

18 M. Butcher

16 E. Bonds

8 J. Grant

21 K. Cesay

9 M. Langstaff

Coach · Peter Cklamovski

Substitutes

26 · L. Burge

29 · L. Garbutt

44 · B. Wiredu

22 · A. Oluwo

2 · N. Asiimwe

23 · D. Udoh

19 · R. Graydon

Crawley Town

3-4-2-1

1 V. Mannone

6 P. Farquharson

5 C. Barker

12 L. Richards

22 A. Adeyemo

28 N. Tinsdale

20 J. Arthurs

30 K. Jennings

10 S. Duke-McKenna

27 D. Morgan

14 G. Di Biase

Coach · Colin Kazim-Richards

Substitutes

13 · N. Michalski

16 · J. Russell

4 · P. Arganese-McDermott

2 · K. Gordon

8 · L. Watson

9 · D. Orsi-Dadomo

17 · O. Kamara

Our number · salford city winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market69%

Us55%

~~Market~~69%

We make Salford City a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Salford City v Crawley Town~~1.74 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 5~~1 v 24

~~The market · Salford City win~~69% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Salford City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salford City win	55%	69%	−14
Draw	24%	19%	+5
Crawley Town win	21%	13%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	51%	63%	−12
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	83%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	29%	42%	−13
Salford City or draw	79%	87%	−8
Salford City clean sheet	38%	–	–
Crawley Town clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.4%

0123450 6.9 6.4 3.2 1 11.4 11.2 5.4 2 9.9 9.6 4.7 3 5.8 5.6 2.7 4 2.6 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salford City down, Crawley Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Salford City at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Crawley Town away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Salford City, 0.98 for Crawley Town. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CRA 0–0 SAL · SAL 4–3 CRA · CRA 0–1 SAL · SAL 1–1 CRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 29 Aug

SALFORD CITY

WDWWWW1–0 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

CRAWLEY TOWN

LDLLLD0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	10	+5	19
2	Barnet	8	+9	18
3	Crewe	10	+5	18
4	Gillingham	10	+5	16
5	York	9	+6	15
6	Walsall	9	+6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	+3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	−2	15
10	Rochdale	10	−1	14
11	Grimsby	10	+2	13
12	Newport County	10	+1	13
13	Tranmere	10	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	−1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	−1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	−5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	−6	11
19	Colchester	9	−3	10
20	Rotherham	10	−4	10
21	Oldham	9	−4	8
22	Port Vale	8	−5	8
23	Northampton	8	−3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	−7	5