Rotherham v Shrewsbury

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rotherham win at 47%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Rotherham was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
3. 1′KICK-OFF Rotherham v Shrewsbury
4. 16′We published Rotherham at 47%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–9
5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Rotherham 1–0 Shrewsbury
6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Rotherham win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
7. 17′A goal for Rotherham on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
8. 19′We published Rotherham at 47%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
9. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Rotherham 2–0 Shrewsbury
10. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Rotherham win: 47% at kick-off, 91% now
11. 23′18′: Paul Mullin on the scoresheet for Rotherham, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
12. 23′A red card for Rotherham on 21′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 92–6–2
13. 23′🟥 RED CARD · 21' kian spence · Rotherham
14. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Rotherham 2–1 Shrewsbury
15. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Rotherham win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
16. 25′Shrewsbury pull one back on 24′ through Josh Davison. 2–1. 2–1 · 74–18–8
17. 29′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Rotherham · On: brandon cover · Off: Jili Buyabu
18. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 74–18–8
19. 32′We published Rotherham at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–7
20. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 31' A. Bruce · Rotherham
21. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Rotherham win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
22. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 45+11' Shrewsbury · On: Michael Golding · Off: George Lloyd
23. 59′We published Rotherham at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
24. 59′We said Rotherham at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 2–2 · 30–49–20
25. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Rotherham 2–2 Shrewsbury
26. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Rotherham win: 47% at kick-off, 30% now
27. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Rotherham win 80%)
28. 60′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 30–50–20
29. 61′Josh Ruffels scores for Shrewsbury on 59′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 29–51–20
30. 61′We said Rotherham at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–51–20
31. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 45+17' Rotherham · On: Sonny Aljofree · Off: Dominic Iorfa
32. 63′Shrewsbury have had 14 attempts to 9 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 28–53–19
33. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rotherham · On: Brandon Williams · Off: Aaron Nemane
34. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rotherham · On: Tom Bradshaw · Off: Paul Mullin
35. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Rotherham win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
36. 68′We said Rotherham at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–20–75
37. 68′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 4–20–75
38. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Rotherham 2–3 Shrewsbury
39. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Rotherham win: 47% at kick-off, 4% now
40. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Shrewsbury win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 58%)
41. 69′67′: William Boyle on the scoresheet for Shrewsbury, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 4–20–76
42. 71′We published Rotherham at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
43. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Rotherham win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
44. 76′We said Rotherham at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 3–3 · 18–70–12
45. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Rotherham 3–3 Shrewsbury
46. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Rotherham win: 47% at kick-off, 18% now
47. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Shrewsbury win 82%)
48. 77′17 shots for Shrewsbury, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 3–3 · 17–71–12
49. 77′Rotherham level it on 76′ through Tom Bradshaw. 3–3. 3–3 · 17–71–12
50. 78′6 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 16–73–11
51. 80′We said Rotherham at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 3–3 · 14–77–10
52. 83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Shrewsbury
53. 84′We said Rotherham at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 3–3 · 9–85–6
54. 85′Red cards for both sides: Rotherham down to ten, Shrewsbury to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–3 · 8–86–6
55. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Rotherham win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
56. FTFULL TIME Rotherham 3–3 Shrewsbury
57. FTRotherham 3–3 Shrewsbury · Rotherham win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.